Earnings Sentiment

Sentiment Analysis of the earnings transcript to help figure out if there are any bullish or bearish sentiments that could be gathered from it. We're doing ML and AI based analysis on the earnings call to get some more insights.

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Sentiment Distribution

   

Earnings Call Transcript Word Cloud

     

Bullish Statements during Earnings call

Statement
We subsequently launched what we're calling workforce blueprint exercise and it started in some of our best facilities up in Quebec and you say, why start in some of your best facilities because I think if we can get gains in places like Quebec that are really, really performing well, we can probably get better games in other parts of the system
We're confident that we are doing all the right things to avoid either having an assessment or not getting our mine permits approved
So far this year, our total recordable injury rate has improved by 16%, and days away and restricted time injury or DART rate is 27% better on a year-over-year basis
I'm proud to lead the company guided by strong values
They're working very aggressively to identify savings, we've got a great pipeline of opportunities
Alcoa is well-positioned for the future
Alcoa has an impressive history of innovation and leadership in the industry and we plan to further build on that and strengthen our market connections
In closing, we are encouraged by the positive operational momentum in the third quarter and intend to build on that performance
We've made good progress this year
Across our system, we've improved stability, and we intend to build on that operational momentum
So, Motion is in good shape
William Oplinger So let's look at them independently, Motion is very well positioned and has a good energy source, is probably one of our most profitable plants in the system
However, look at the bridge that Molly showed, we saw production cost improvements for the first time in a long time in the third quarter and just so you understand how that bridge works, that's largely because we were able to make the tons
At the segment level, in alumina we expect an improvement of approximately $50 million due to lower raw material prices, better production costs and higher volumes
We also see the refineries operating very well with the lower bauxite quality and then third, you're right, the mitigation efforts are just starting to drive down costs
And finally, while some end-use sectors for aluminum are softer now, we remain bullish on the long-term fundamentals for our markets
We did draw on stockpiles that had slightly better quality than we expected during the third quarter
In the long-term, we remain bullish on aluminum as a material of choice
I think there's opportunities even in our best plants and we highlighted the great success that we've had in Quebec so far this year
Alcoa is uniquely positioned in the aluminum industry for a world focused on carbon emissions and other sustainability issues which we are addressing from three vectors
I attended LME Week where the prevailing view was that aluminum is poised for long-term growth
I really believe with disciplined focus and you've heard a lot of our talk around disciplined focus today, we will build an even stronger company for the future
As you can hear from my comments, it's a true honor to lead this company as we're positioned for long-term success
So if we address kind of the suite of questions that you have, I think, we made good progress in the third quarter on this issue
And so we were able to make the tons in the third quarter and the guidance that she gave was a pretty strong guidance with the exception of the carbon change from the Norwegian government which is totally outside of our control
At the same time, aluminum inventories in terms of days of consumption remained at historically low levels, positioning the market well for when demand improves
I'm really excited and I'm really happy to be in the role that I am in
We're getting better stability in places like Brazil and the restart, much significantly better stability, and operational performance in our Western Australia assets, even though they have worse bauxite quality
And really an expectation of excellence in everything we do and I hit upon this in my prepared remarks, whether it's operations maintenance, finance, an expectation of really being excellent
As we look forward, we see a rebound of demand going into 2024 and really see strong demand trends that are driven by the mega-trends going out into the future
       

Bearish Statements during earnings call

Statement
Revenue was down 3% to $2.6 billion as higher shipments only partially offset lower realized prices for both alumina and aluminum
I am disappointed that we had one serious injury with life-altering implications in the third quarter
We reported an adjusted net loss for the third quarter of $1.14 per share and $70 million in adjusted EBITDA, excluding special items driven by lower average realized prices for both alumina and aluminum
The current situation in Western Australia puts pressure on the refining segment
However, as basically the question that you just asked, we are starting -- we see significant challenges that need to be overcome for that site to be viable, including soft demand for the value-add products, that site makes slab and billet, low aluminum prices in this -- in the case of Europe high power costs and delay in permitting, and construction of some of the alternative power supplies that we had been looking at
In building and construction, high-interest rates have negatively affected that sector in the last year, particularly in North America and Europe
This year we've seen demand fall off and yet inventories have not built -- been built significantly
We lost power for close to three and half hours in the smelter at Alumar
So some of the big demand drivers in the rest of world that we've seen this year are really a reduction -- significant reduction in building and construction, actually a reduction of demand in packaging of all places, ever so slight and so across the board, we're seeing some weakness in the end markets
But with that said, it's been a pretty tough year on demand in aluminum
We hope to overcome these challenges to allow for a progressive restart through the end of 2025, but it's been and it remains very difficult
Year-to-date return on equity is negative 8.7%
Third quarter 2023 adjusted EBITDA declined $67 million to $70 million as lower metal and alumina realized prices were only partially offset by lower raw materials energy and production costs
This industry has not had a problem on the demand side with the exception of the global financial crisis where we saw demand fall off and then inventories build
So the risk that I see is around that permitting process
I guess what's the latest you've seen in terms of supply demand balance, I guess in the context of restarts in Yunnan, you know, relatively weak, you know, macro backdrop
We lost a few parts, I think we probably lost close to a dozen parts bringing the plant back online from that power outage
Adjusted EBITDA declined $67 million to $70 million as part of the decrease in revenue was offset by lower costs
You know, if I remember correctly, there are some, you know, potential issues with proximity to local communities
And then I guess maybe on the end market demand side, where are you seeing most resilience and then what remains most muted and any sort of color between regions? William Oplinger So, 2023 is going to go down as a pretty tough year for the aluminum industry
   

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