Earnings Sentiment

Sentiment Analysis of the earnings transcript to help figure out if there are any bullish or bearish sentiments that could be gathered from it. We're doing ML and AI based analysis on the earnings call to get some more insights.

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Sentiment Distribution

   

Earnings Call Transcript Word Cloud

     

Bullish Statements during Earnings call

Statement
We recognize that even in the simple act of correction access allocation, there is a large opportunity for revenue generation and increased LTV
Despite the still difficult macro environment, we remain committed to better serving our clients through innovation, high-quality service and growth
When we get the positive part of the cycle for investments, we expect to see our operating leverage kicking in and benefiting our return on tangible equity as well
New verticals should continue to grow strongly, further diversifying our revenues and strengthening our business model
This shows the large potential growth with still ahead of us
Despite the macroeconomic conditions I just mentioned, we were able to achieve a 12% growth year-over-year in top line and 10% growth year-over-year in bottom line, with approximately 100 bps growth in our EBT margin
When we talk about the new regulation, we see as positive when you look the long-term because you guys saw what happened in the past 2 years, mainly in the past year, the banks raised almost BRL1 billion – BRL1 trillion in tax exempt and products
So that’s also positive for us
These positive numbers are a result of a complete range of products and continue to show the benefits of the increased diversification of our business model, translating on a 22% growth in 2023 compared to 2022
The main highlight here in fourth quarter ‘23 was the all-time high issuer services revenue at BRL330 million, a growth of 3% quarter-over-quarter and 136% year-over-year, boosted by the evolution of our franchise in investment banking with M&A as the main contributor for the growth
We expect to see our annual EBT margin improving on the next couple of years
Corporate and Issuer Services presented another solid quarter with revenue of BRL508 million, plus 85% year-over-year and a slightly decrease of 2% quarter-over-quarter, which had a tough comp considering corporate results in the third quarter ‘23
The third quarter was really strong because of DCM activity
So in summary, we believe XP is well positioned to benefit from the next positive cycle for investments whenever it comes
So we believe we can see some of these structured funds with good returns for individual clients on the short-term, okay? So it might be positive because, as you know, when investors see the return is increasing, they start to like to invest more on this type of product
Second, in relation to our retail cross-sell, which we talked a lot about in our Investor Day, we aim to continuously grow together with our clients’ needs, clients adherence to new products and service shows a strong bond of relationship
And if we add the other new verticals: FX, digital account, global investments and corporate and SMB ex-investments, in line with our presentation in the Investor Day, the total gross revenue sum up to BRL2.7 billion in 2023, enhancing our diversification and cross-sell capabilities
Besides, in 2023, we improved our service, specifically in FX and insurance and both are responding with strong growth
But again, as we already mentioned, we have very strong cost discipline that’s still in place on the company
Third, in corporate and SMB, I believe we have a unique competitive advantage in wholesale banking due to our sophisticated retail investors’ client base and large distribution channel
There is one slide in the presentation and I mentioned, we have a very strong focus on quality and that means for investments being the best financial planning service provider in Brazil
And we expect our business to really benefit from that scenario
This is just one small example of how our dedication to quality translates into tangible benefits for both our clients and our business
And when you talk about provisions against the NPL, we have very good provisions today
Retail revenue reached its all-time high in 2023 at BRL11.791 billion, helped by new verticals, which grew 3x from 2021, but core retail revenue, which grew 9% year-over-year, reaching BRL8.073 billion in 2023
But again, you repeated a very strong quarter, you had higher volumes, but you also mentioned that M&A helped
It was by far the highest growth quarter-over-quarter
Net margin was 26.5%, up 18 bps quarter-over-quarter and up 184 bps year-over-year
As you know, the fourth quarter has a positive seasonality to cards activity due to the holiday season
First, leadership in retail investment by which we aim leadership in our core business
       

Bearish Statements during earnings call

Statement
EBT margin will struggle to accelerate the pace really faster even with a strict cost control, but – so it’s not a linear
As I mentioned in my annual letter, 2023 was both a challenging and transformative year for XP
Revenue mix was the main driver for quarter-over-quarter margins decreased, impacting COGS and our gross margin, which decreased from 70.1% in third quarter ‘23 to 68.1% in fourth quarter ‘23
But if I take inflows out, your AUC grew only 7%, so which is significantly lower than CDI
So, could there be more short-term pressure on that EBITDA margin, at least in the first half of the year because you are not seeing volumes sort of recover yet
In terms of also how you think about maybe the seasonality, if we look at B3 volumes sort of continue to be weak
What has hurt the net new money more is the outflows from companies, corporate, it’s really volatile
And that BRL53 million was low because we had the impact of the layoffs and so on cancellations, etcetera
In the past year has been tough for all those asset classes, as you probably know
If you go back in the last 5 years and you do an average, you are going to see that the first quarter of the year is always the weakest quarter for the year, okay, because that’s how the business works, especially at our core business investments
On Slide 16, our net income for the fourth quarter ‘23, considering plus BRL31 million from the one-off event, totaled BRL1.071 billion, down 1% quarter-over-quarter and up 37% year-over-year
Compensation ratio decreased once again from 25.7% to 25.1% quarter-over-quarter, the lowest level in 13 quarters sequentially
But remember that we do have in retail SMBs and corporate clients that have an annual revenue below the threshold of BRL700 million and also the private, but not the engine
And there were several news about like complaints recently in XP possibly having to reimburse those clients
It’s been really tough for 2 years
Annual return on tangible equity slightly decreased by 21 bps to 25%
This is still 3% lower than the peak of 2021, despite a bigger ecosystem
Adjusting for the one-off event, this quarter’s EBT was BRL1.039 billion, down 10% quarter-over-quarter and up 41% year-over-year
So, that’s why when you look our NPL, it’s much lower than the market
But was to remind all of us about the business we have in XP because sometimes, we have been through 2 years, very tough 2 years in terms of our core business investments
   

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