Shareholders might have noticed that Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:ACLS) filed its yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.5% to US$122 in the past week. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$1.1b and statutory earnings per share of US$7.43. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Axcelis Technologies

Following last week's earnings report, Axcelis Technologies' seven analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$1.11b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to reduce 5.0% to US$7.14 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.17b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.59 in 2024. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$160, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Axcelis Technologies' valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Axcelis Technologies analyst has a price target of US$180 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$134. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Axcelis Technologies is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 1.6% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 26% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 16% per year. It's pretty clear that Axcelis Technologies' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.