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| And so contrary to what many would think, not only are we reducing our cost, we're improving our performance |
| So all those things, we feel like play to our strengths, play to our technology organization's capabilities and give us an advantage in that space |
| Finally, the competitive advantage is that we strengthened the organization we've built, the portfolio of investments we've developed and the shareholder returns we generate creates the most compelling investment case in the industry, an investment case, robust to a very wide range of future scenarios, from the status quo to rapid decarbonization |
| And so feel really good about that |
| But it is clear, with our capabilities and competitive advantages, there's a huge potential that we are uniquely positioned to capture |
| Our focus on excellence and execution is paying off, and it gives us confidence in our ability to add another $14 billion to earnings and cash flow by 2027, on top of the $10 billion already delivered since 2019 |
| It's delivering industry-leading results |
| And frankly, one that we think gives us a lot of stability and maintaining a level of shareholder returns consistently through the cycles |
| And so all the decisions that we're making in this space are premised on making sure that we are coming in with a -- in the carbon capture side of the equation, the lowest cost of abatement that the industry can bring to bear and that we are competitively advantaged in that space |
| So I'm very optimistic that the numbers that we've laid out based on the success we've already had and the line of sight we have to the opportunities, that we'll deliver on the additional $6 billion going forward |
| This year's plan reflects additional progress in operations as well as successfully solving for the "And" equation, creating value for society and the compelling investment thesis for our shareholders |
| We're maintaining our balance sheet strength to provide financial flexibility through the commodity cycles |
| Our cash balance, cash generation and debt-to-capital ratio are all robust, giving us a strong buffer against market volatility |
| We're delivering industry-leading returns |
| Our plan deploys capital to its highest and best use, focuses on excellence in execution, and continues to drive structural cost improvements |
| So we put together fairly aggressive plans to deliver world-class projects that develop that resource cost competitively, lead industry and emissions intensity, and frankly, we've been doing better than our own plans |
| So we feel really good about the platform that we have there |
| We are pacing our investments with developments in each of these areas, minimizing the downside risk while establishing an advantaged position to capture and maximize the upside |
| So we feel really good about how we position ourselves in that space |
| And I think it speaks to the quality of the projects that we came up with early on and have been effectively executing |
| Of course, the main driver of our financial success is continued investment in advantaged assets |
| We expect to grow earnings and cash flow by roughly $14 billion over the next 4 years, building further on the significant improvements in earnings power already delivered |
| And then with carbon capture, the ability to piece together this value chain and the advantage of logistics that we have and the technology we bring to bear there also gives us an advantage |
| The operating team have done a great job of really squeezing out productivity on the kit that we put in place there, and frankly, I have every expectation that as we bring on each new project, the organization will deliver the same kind of improvement opportunities that we've seen with the two that have been on for a while and what we expect to get with Payara |
| So feel good about the capacity objective that we've laid out there |
| Our surplus cash potential through 2027 remains impressive at $80 billion, even if Brent falls by more than 20% from where it is today |
| We're continuing to deliver structural cost savings, with roughly $15 billion planned through 2027, a significant driver of our improved earnings power versus 2019 |
| And we feel really, really positive about one, what we've seen to date |
| We're advocating fairly strongly for that because our view is the IRA is a good way to stimulate and catalyze the growth of these businesses |
| We're improving our environmental performance |
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| But actually, it effectively hurts the economics for green hydrogen quite significantly |
| So one of the challenges, as you referenced, as we cut costs, making sure that we don't sacrifice performance and our ability to execute |
| I think if you look at what we've delivered today, I think when we first put our target of $9 billion out there, the plan for $9 billion, there was some skepticism as to whether we could achieve that |
| And so, yes, it's there to be flex, but you have to get to a pretty soft environment before it necessarily makes a lot of sense to flex down much |
| The second thing I would say because of that and that need, and what I would say is the challenge associated with starting a brand-new business from scratch and the capital commitments required and the time frame it will take to establish, you need -- the world needs companies like ExxonMobil, with our size and capabilities to actually make progress in this space to make meaningful progress |
| One of the key challenges here is making sure that we've got a project concept that is very competitive, cost competitive, that's competitive from a cost of supply standpoint |
| So Darren mentioned earlier, the reason that we have the wider range is basically because there's more uncertainty associated with the lower emission spending |
| More of that uncertainty is associated with the third-party emission spending |
| But as Kathy says, there's still a lot of uncertainty in that space, a lot of regulations to be put in place |
| It wasn't an accepted part of the narrative, and therefore, the market opportunity to progress those businesses was somewhat limited |
| We recognize and are effectively managing the significant uncertainty in how the transition in our low carbon business will develop |
| With respect to the 2 countries that you mentioned, I would say Mozambique, obviously still in force majeure there |
| I think often gets lost when we think about this space |
| The pause that we took in COVID, as you mentioned, obviously, with the drastic impact that COVID had on the industry and cash flows |
| If it gets translated in a way that disadvantages the project, then we won't pursue the project |
| And then it's really just a question of how that Low Carbon Solution spends manifest itself in this time horizon, recognizing some of the things that have yet to be resolved yet with respect to the regulations and the customer commitments and the fact that these are very early businesses |
| The idea that this transition can happen with a number of small startups, I think doesn't fully comprehend just the size of the challenge here, and the complexity associated with starting some of these brand-new businesses from scratch |
| Frankly, the concentration wasn't high enough to support the economics that we felt like we needed |
| And hence, one of our reasons in the comments we're making around the uncertainty is the IRA, that legislation is still going through the process of rulemaking and into regulation |
| We still anticipate that |
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