Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation VAC is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 21, after market close. In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 45.2%.

The Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Marriott Vacations’ fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) has been unchanged at $1.80 in the past 60 days. The estimate indicates a 34.3% decline from the year-ago reported level.

For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $1.15 billion, suggesting a decline of 3.6% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Let's look at how things have shaped up in the quarter.

Factors to Note

Marriott Vacations' fourth-quarter earnings and revenues are expected to have declined year over year due to lower contract sales and volumes per guest. Economic uncertainties and reduced consumer spending are also likely to have been concerning for the company's performance. For 2023, it expects contract sales between $1.75 billion and $1.77 billion, down from the previously stated $1.84-$1.90 billion.

Our model expects the sale of vacation ownership products, management and exchange, and rental revenues to decline 20.6%, 0.7% and 4.3% year over year to $348.4 million, $202.5 million and $108.2 million, respectively.     

However, improvement in occupancy rates and sales-boosting initiatives are expected to have offset the adverse effects of the headwinds partially. Also, robust vacation revenues are likely to have aided the top line.

Meanwhile, the company's bottom line is likely to have been affected by inflationary pressure. Escalated marketing and sales expenses, and management and exchange costs are likely to have affected total costs. For the fourth quarter, our model predicts the operating margin to decline 520 basis points year over year to 11.3%.

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

 

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation price-eps-surprise | Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Quote

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Marriott Vacations this time around. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. But that is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Marriott Vacations has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.