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| And between improved reliability in Trinidad by operating on a three asset plan to fully utilize our gas that's available to us there, and improvements on the back of some of the turnarounds we did at Borger and Geismar last year |
| So, I think the key point here is that I think from a nutrient standpoint, whether it's the supply customers or other nutrient ag solutions, as Jeff was talking about, we feel like we're pretty well positioned, I think, in that whole equation, whether it's from a volume standpoint or just generally, the natural gas and the profit advantage we have on the wholesale side of the business in that environment where you've got supply tightness this spring in North America |
| We had a really strong fall application rate |
| We think that we'll see significant improvement over '23, starting in the back half of '24 |
| We feel really good about where we sit right now from an inventory perspective |
| And like the Company that you're referencing now, they did some very unique things in seed, and they were very strong in selling seed |
| is a net importer of nitrogen products, and we're shaping up to have another pretty strong year from a planting standpoint on corn, it looks like |
| But what that group explained to me was their profitability doubled, and they attributed it to the benefits from having your low-cost position, the cost that you can acquire crop chemicals, your proprietary products, and then the scale and the density of the platform and the benefits from that |
| And so, as we look out at least through the first half of the year, we're very constructive in terms of nitrogen demand, but also tightness in supply heading into the spring here in North America |
| And as I look today at our inventory levels where we sit today, I think we're adequately surprised -- very adequately supplied through the middle of April and into 1st of May and in a good position really and truthfully for the first half of the year |
| I know we feel good about our asset base and how we're positioned going into the spring |
| We expect demand to grow again this year from 67 million to 68 million tons last year to what we'd now say is 68 million to 71 million tons |
| But yes, we feel like we're in a good position if we do kick off with an early spring to support customers |
| And I always feel like I'm a pretty good -- I've been in this thing for over 40 years |
| And we look out to this year, we see ourselves continuing to grow share with the market really into that mid-cycle case that we see as 14 million to 15 million tons for Nutrien, in that share that we've traditionally maintained and enjoyed |
| So, we think we'll start to see improvements in that as we get into the second half of the year |
| And so, we really can grow into that more or less organically over the next couple of years as the market continues to recover, and we expect it will |
| And with proprietary products, a lot of times, we can double our margin with that proprietary portfolio |
| So, we think we'll be able to satisfy our customers' demands, but it could make it tight |
| And so, I think the benefit that we've got at this point is we put the steel in the ground, we invested in the low-cost assets we have, and really, from an installed capacity standpoint, we've got about 15 million tons there |
| And so, a lot of those businesses are very profitable for us, where you look at purified demand, as an example, and some of the different feed and industrial markets that we're serving |
| And I always feel like I got a pretty good feel for where yields are going to come in |
| And as those come to fruition over the next two to three years, we see that 11.5 million to 12 million ton number being probably a good landing spot for us |
| We -- and again, we saw very heavy ammonia usage in the fall, which sets up well for '24 season |
| And I think the supply walk, the easiest way to think about the supply walk to get there, as I talked about, was from 10.4 million tons last year, the improvement to our midpoint this year is really that 500,000 tons |
| So we've gained a lot of synergies over time |
| So as that market recovers, which we expect it will, as affordability has improved, some of the uncertainty around trade flows has improved |
| Stephen Byrne Very good |
| We're forecasting tonnage to be up again in '24 over '23 6% to 7% across our retail network |
| So, improved reliability is definitely playing a role in, I think, our network and us having supplies available to support our customers |
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| And ultimately, I think at this point, some of that's history, but we saw potash prices go above $1,000 a ton and really saw demand be destroyed by that |
| And so, about two years ago, when we got into the second half of 2021 and we started to see some supply disruptions, we saw the flooding of another mine in Canada that was not Nutrien's asset |
| And so, of course, in 2022, we saw global shipments fall from about 70 million tons down to 61 million tons in 2023 |
| And I think in some cases, we understand that's really probably shipping from prior seasons still catching up because of some of those supply interruptions |
| I can't sit here and tell you that I think that yields suffered from deficiency because even when I look today, I think USDA came out a couple of weeks ago, and they're projecting somewhere 180 to 181 |
| So if this thing kicked off really quick, I think there could be some constraints there |
| But I think on the supply side, you've seen some constraints out of Trinidad from a gas standpoint |
| You've seen some supply issues in the U.S |
| Has that been a more challenging area for you to build out that platform and why? Jeff Tarsi Well, it has been a challenge, particularly over the last 18 months |
| Those yields surprised me from that standpoint |
| We saw Belarusian sanctions, and then, of course, the war, breakout in Ukraine and really caused a supply crisis |
| And with some of the weather starting to improve in pockets of the U.S., if we get going here a little bit more quickly than maybe is traditional, we could see a squeeze in some of these inland markets for nitrogen |
| And just as we got through that fertilizer devaluation, we went into a massive devaluation on the crop protection market |
| I think the supply tightness is coming from a few different places with respect to production interruptions that have happened, and in some cases, have seemed to continue to happen in Trinidad because of gas and the U.S |
| And particularly, when I speak to the fact that we had an extremely hard reset on nutrition prices, a lot of devaluation in the fertilizer market |
| So we look at those yields globally and they are below trend, and we think nutrients is obviously one of those things that's going to help catch up |
| I think that's what could coincide to cause some tightness potentially |
| Ammonia has really been a bit of a mixed supply picture, but we do see some tightness right here and now today in the U.S |
| Stephen Byrne Do you think that 177 bushel suffered from soil deficiency? Jeff Tarsi First of all, I'm going to tell you, I was very surprised at the 177 |
| Stephen Byrne So you clearly have excess supply of potash that you could bring on stream |
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