It's been a good week for Nutrien Ltd. (TSE:NTR) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest annual results, and the shares gained 4.3% to CA$71.91. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at US$2.53, some 27% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at US$28b. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Nutrien

After the latest results, the consensus from Nutrien's 14 analysts is for revenues of US$26.6b in 2024, which would reflect a perceptible 5.4% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 80% to US$4.59. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$27.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.46 in 2024. If anything, the analysts look to have become slightly more optimistic overall; while they decreased their revenue forecasts, EPS predictions increased and ultimately earnings are more important.

The consensus has made no major changes to the price target of CA$87.15, suggesting the forecast improvement in earnings is expected to offset the decline in revenues next year. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Nutrien analyst has a price target of CA$106 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$64.77. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 5.4% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 15% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 1.8% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Nutrien is expected to lag the wider industry.