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| Statement |
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| And so we'll keep updating as we go through the year, but we're making really good progress on both fronts |
| One, we always thought we had a really strong product, great efficacy, great profile, even the prefilled syringe that was provided where we thought we had answered a lot of questions |
| So we see upside in the current year because there's going to be approvals we think much more in line because it will be a second year with respiratory vaccines |
| But we actually think we are in a strong position in a strategic side |
| On the long-term, and we hope we have the best product, you know, full stop |
| I mean I think in many ways that $2 billion market that you just referenced really --- is the positive surprise in the opportunity |
| We're quite pleased that -- so far -- quite fortunate so far in our clinical studies we have not seen a GBS signal, but at the end of day, there is -- it's a place that I think ACIP and public health will continue to monitor costs |
| And so we're making great progress |
| And again, if you look at different markets, could have different answers to that, I think our -- we have a good confidence |
| The second thing is we have to show good safety and a favorable reactogenicity profile |
| They wanted to go generate more data, but I think we still saw a really good uptake |
| And we're actually optimistic that it will make substantial progress this year |
| And so over time, we hope the ability to make later strains selection is better matched, and particularly in mismatch here potential for better performance |
| Normal course standard people should get this booster high-risk people as was recommended last week should get twice a year 65 plus |
| And you're right, those numbers are trending better than the prior placebo competitor |
| And so we're pretty excited by that |
| But last year, I was impressed by the fact that you guys increased the market share from 37% to 48% |
| Moderna on that, we made great progress |
| So we do believe we have the right platform for respiratory vaccines, and we do believe that over time, those things will -- long-term will help build that story with data that we have generated |
| Point estimate has to be favorable |
| And we see a real benefit in a real need to lean in |
| We saw that in the Phase 1/2 data that we shared earlier so we're pretty optimistic that we'll see that in the Phase 3 |
| It certainly supports if you trend that out and say over the next few years we're going to drive towards that better vaccine coverage rate, you can imagine $6 billion to $8 billion starts to become a reasonable estimate |
| And if you can decrease the labor input that people have to put into delivering the healthcare, you're going to get better outcomes |
| I think the unappreciated thing is to the extent to which that we have used the last three to four years to dramatically diversify and expand this pipeline to a scale that we think in the next years, very shortly in months to years starts to demonstrate the power of this platform, and will turn us into a very, very different looking company |
| And so we think that more normal standard messaging will allow people to prepare and ultimately provide better vaccination coverage, which is really what public health and we want to achieve |
| Obviously, the data has to be positive |
| So changing the strains selection so that you have a more diverse set of strengths and you get we think better protection against the circulating strains, a mRNA-1011 program as to H3 for instance |
| Tyler Van Buren And we weren't able to get to the Phase 3 CMV trial read-out by the end of the year, which is an exciting opportunity, as well as the orphan programs and several others |
| We know it's a show-me year for us, both on the commercial side, we got to do it again, and hopefully, a little bit better with our -- and then add RSV to it and pipeline side |
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| And we also lost a lot of people we think they came in to get their flu vaccine early in the season, quite motivated and maybe for whatever reason didn't make it back to the pharmacy or the doctor's office for that booster |
| And I think there is a binding concern on fortunately very rare, but still signals of GBS that have emerged in the other two companies' trials and is present in some of the follow-up data |
| In the case of the COVID vaccines, because they were really rolled out at the end of September, we lost that whole month |
| Tyler Van Buren Why is it apparently relatively easy for you guys to have prefilled syringes for your vaccines and difficult for the others? Stephen Hoge Well, again, I can't speak to what other challenges were, right, because |
| I think like the COVID situation, it was the first year, the recommendation was a little bit massive |
| I think if you pull all the way back, and clearly, there is a view that RSV is a real burden of disease and there is a desire to get more people vaccinated against it |
| None of that should be terribly surprising |
| And with that confirmation of durability now passed three years really is statistics getting pretty unequivocal in that durability data |
| So not -- a couple of things |
| There were a number of things about the US launch of our product and our competitors' products were a little suboptimal for respiratory vaccination |
| But it's a meaningful decrease in efficacy |
| And again, remember that in 2021 and 2022, we were supply-constrained |
| There is a question about obviously the frequency of boosting, and I think that will take more data to resolve, but I think there is general acceptance that if it's not one-and-done because you're seeing this 20% decrease between years, between many other products in over time in the vaccine efficacy, and obviously, that's something you can fix with boosting we think |
| But for that reason, it makes some sense |
| I think the second thing is there is a view that RSV vaccines like flu and COVID vaccines are going to weigh |
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