There's been a notable change in appetite for MGP Ingredients, Inc. (NASDAQ:MGPI) shares in the week since its yearly report, with the stock down 12% to US$79.75. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$837m and statutory earnings per share of US$4.80 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that MGP Ingredients is executing in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for MGP Ingredients

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the six analysts covering MGP Ingredients, is for revenues of US$757.4m in 2024. This implies a definite 9.5% reduction in MGP Ingredients' revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 27% to US$6.15. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$788.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.12 in 2024. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.

The average price target was steady at US$127even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values MGP Ingredients at US$150 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$100.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 9.5% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 21% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.9% per year. It's pretty clear that MGP Ingredients' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.