Financial Outlook

Our guidance for Q1 2024 reflects an improvement in market conditions in our P&C insurance vertical compared with Q4 2023. In our Health vertical, we expect mid- to high-single digit year-over-year growth in Transaction Value. In our Life and Other verticals, we expect Transaction Value to be slightly down year over year. Due to the uncertainty around the timing and slope of the P&C market recovery, we are not providing full year 2024 guidance.

For the first quarter of 2024, MediaAlpha currently expects the following:

• Transaction Value between $175 million - $190 million, representing a 6% year-over-year decline at the midpoint of the guidance range. We expect P&C Transaction Value to nearly double in Q1 2024 compared with Q4 2023, driven by both an accelerating recovery in carrier marketing spending and normal seasonality;

• Revenue between $105 million - $115 million, representing a 1% year-over-year decline at the midpoint of the guidance range;

• Adjusted EBITDA between $9.5 million - $11.5 million, representing a 45% year-over-year increase at the midpoint of the guidance range. We expect Adjusted EBITDA to grow at a greater rate than Transaction Value, Revenue and Contribution in Q1 2024 due to our primarily fixed operating expense profile. We expect Contribution less Adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2024 to be approximately $0.5 - $1.0 million higher than Q4 2023.
  

With respect to the Company’s projections of Adjusted EBITDA and Contribution under “Financial Outlook,” MediaAlpha is not providing a reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to net income (loss), or of Contribution to gross profit, because the Company is unable to predict with reasonable certainty the reconciling items that may affect the corresponding GAAP measures without unreasonable effort. These reconciling items are uncertain, depend on various factors and could significantly impact, either individually or in the aggregate, the corresponding GAAP measures for the applicable period.

For a detailed explanation of the Company’s non-GAAP measures, please refer to the appendix section of this press release.

Conference Call Information
MediaAlpha will host a Q&A conference call today to discuss the Company's fourth quarter and full year 2023 results and its financial outlook for the first quarter of 2024 at 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time (5:00 p.m. Eastern Time). A live audio webcast of the call will be available on the MediaAlpha Investor Relations website at https://investors.mediaalpha.com. To register for the webcast, click here. Participants may also dial-in, toll-free, at (888) 330-2022 or (646) 960-0690, with passcode 3195092. An audio replay of the conference call will be available following the call and available on the MediaAlpha Investor Relations website at https://investors.mediaalpha.com.

We have also posted to our investor relations website a letter to shareholders. We have used, and intend to continue to use, our investor relations website at https://investors.mediaalpha.com as a means of disclosing material nonpublic information and for complying with our disclosure obligations under Regulation FD.

Forward-Looking Statements

This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including without limitation statements regarding our expectation that Transaction Value in our P&C vertical will nearly double in the first quarter on a sequential basis; our expectation that our growth will accelerate as more auto insurance carriers restore profitability and increase their marketing investments; and our financial outlook for the first quarter of 2024. These forward-looking statements reflect our current views with respect to, among other things, future events and our financial performance. These statements are often, but not always, made through the use of words or phrases such as “may,” “should,” “could,” “predict,” “potential,” “believe,” “will likely result,” “expect,” “continue,” “will,” “anticipate,” “seek,” “estimate,” “intend,” “plan,” “projection,” “would,” and “outlook,” or the negative version of those words or other comparable words or phrases of a future or forward-looking nature. These forward-looking statements are not historical facts, and are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about our industry, management’s beliefs and certain assumptions made by management, many of which, by their nature, are inherently uncertain and beyond our control. Accordingly, we caution you that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to risks, assumptions and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable as of the date made, actual results may prove to be materially different from the results expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements.

There are or will be important factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those indicated in these forward-looking statements, including those more fully described in MediaAlpha’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including the Form 10-K as of and for the year ended December 31, 2023 to be filed on or about February 22, 2024. These factors should not be construed as exhaustive. MediaAlpha disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances that occur after the date of this press release.

Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Operating Metrics

This press release includes Adjusted EBITDA and Contribution Margin, which are non-GAAP financial measures. The Company also presents Transaction Value, which is an operating metric not presented in accordance with GAAP. See the appendix for definitions of Adjusted EBITDA, Contribution, Contribution Margin and Transaction Value, as well as reconciliations to the corresponding GAAP financial metrics, as applicable.

We present Transaction Value, Adjusted EBITDA and Contribution Margin because they are used extensively by our management and board of directors to manage our operating performance, including evaluating our operational performance against budget and assessing our overall operating efficiency and operating leverage. Accordingly, we believe that Transaction Value, Adjusted EBITDA and Contribution Margin provide useful information to investors and others in understanding and evaluating our operating results in the same manner as our management team and board of directors. Each of Transaction Value, Adjusted EBITDA and Contribution Margin has limitations as a financial measure and investors should not consider it in isolation or as a substitute for analysis of our results as reported under GAAP.

Contacts:
Investors
Denise Garcia
Hayflower Partners
Denise@HayflowerPartners.com

Key business and operating metrics and Non-GAAP financial measures

Transaction Value

We define “Transaction Value” as the total gross dollars transacted by our partners on our platform. Transaction Value is an operating metric not presented in accordance with GAAP, and is a driver of revenue based on the economic relationships we have with our partners. Our partners use our platform to transact via Open and Private Marketplace transactions. In our Open Marketplace model, Transaction Value is equal to revenue recognized and revenue share payments to our supply partners represent costs of revenue. In our Private Marketplace model, revenue recognized represents a platform fee billed to the demand partner or supply partner based on an agreed-upon percentage of the Transaction Value for the Consumer Referrals transacted, and accordingly there are no associated costs of revenue. We utilize Transaction Value to assess revenue and to assess the overall level of transaction activity through our platform. We believe it is useful to investors to assess the overall level of activity on our platform and to better understand the sources of our revenue across our different transaction models and verticals.

The following table presents Transaction Value by platform model for the three months and full years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022:

The following table presents Transaction Value by vertical for the three months and full years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022:

Contribution and Contribution Margin

We define “Contribution” as revenue less revenue share payments and online advertising costs, or, as reported in our consolidated statements of operations, revenue less cost of revenue (i.e., gross profit), as adjusted to exclude the following items from cost of revenue: equity-based compensation; salaries, wages, and related costs; internet and hosting costs; amortization; depreciation; other services; and merchant-related fees. We define “Contribution Margin” as Contribution expressed as a percentage of revenue for the same period. Contribution and Contribution Margin are non-GAAP financial measures that we present to supplement the financial information we present on a GAAP basis. We use Contribution and Contribution Margin to measure the return on our relationships with our supply partners (excluding certain fixed costs), the financial return on and efficacy of our online advertising costs to drive consumers to our proprietary websites, and our operating leverage. We do not use Contribution and Contribution Margin as measures of overall profitability. We present Contribution and Contribution Margin because they are used by our management and board of directors to manage our operating performance, including evaluating our operational performance against budget and assessing our overall operating efficiency and operating leverage. For example, if Contribution increases and our headcount costs and other operating expenses remain steady, our Adjusted EBITDA and operating leverage increase. If Contribution Margin decreases, we may choose to re-evaluate and re-negotiate our revenue share agreements with our supply partners, to make optimization and pricing changes with respect to our bids for keywords from primary traffic acquisition sources, or to change our overall cost structure with respect to headcount, fixed costs and other costs. Other companies may calculate Contribution and Contribution Margin differently than we do. Contribution and Contribution Margin have their limitations as analytical tools, and you should not consider them in isolation or as substitutes for analysis of our results presented in accordance with GAAP.

The following table reconciles Contribution with gross profit, the most directly comparable financial measure calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP, for the three months and full years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022:

Adjusted EBITDA

We define “Adjusted EBITDA” as net income excluding interest expense, income tax benefit (expense), depreciation expense on property and equipment, amortization of intangible assets, as well as equity-based compensation expense and certain other adjustments as listed in the table below. Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP financial measure that we present to supplement the financial information we present on a GAAP basis. We monitor and present Adjusted EBITDA because it is a key measure used by our management to understand and evaluate our operating performance, to establish budgets and to develop operational goals for managing our business. We believe that Adjusted EBITDA helps identify underlying trends in our business that could otherwise be masked by the effect of the expenses that we exclude in the calculations of Adjusted EBITDA. Accordingly, we believe that Adjusted EBITDA provides useful information to investors and others in understanding and evaluating our operating results, enhancing the overall understanding of our past performance and future prospects. In addition, presenting Adjusted EBITDA provides investors with a metric to evaluate the capital efficiency of our business.

Adjusted EBITDA is not presented in accordance with GAAP and should not be considered in isolation of, or as an alternative to, measures presented in accordance with GAAP. There are a number of limitations related to the use of Adjusted EBITDA rather than net income, which is the most directly comparable financial measure calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP. These limitations include the fact that Adjusted EBITDA excludes interest expense on debt, income tax benefit (expense), equity-based compensation expense, depreciation and amortization, and certain other adjustments that we consider to be useful to investors and others in understanding and evaluating our operating results. In addition, other companies may use other measures to evaluate their performance, including different definitions of “Adjusted EBITDA,” which could reduce the usefulness of our Adjusted EBITDA as a tool for comparison.

The following table reconciles Adjusted EBITDA with net (loss), the most directly comparable financial measure calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP, for the three months and full years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022.