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| economy, while demand for ammonium nitrate for mining activity has been strong, driven by the infrastructure-related production of aggregates, as well as metals mining to supply electric vehicle production and other applications |
| Putting this all together, we believe that fundamentals for nitrogen producers are attractive and that demand and pricing trends should allow for solid profitability and cash flow for the foreseeable future |
| At the same time, we are focused on advancing our low-carbon ammonia projects, which we believe will enable us to significantly reduce our company's carbon footprint, while also representing a source of meaningful bottom-line growth and increased value for our shareholders over the next several years |
| Our profitability is further enhanced as we will look to upgrade ammonia into higher valued downstream products, and in 2024, we will be intensifying our efforts to maximize the production of our downstream plants, while optimizing the mix of those products to capture the highest margins possible |
| So again, we're excited about the project |
| In addition to our safety performance, we were also pleased with how our ammonia plants ran over the course of the year |
| Despite the turnarounds, however, we expect sales volumes for our downstream products to be up year-over-year, as a result of operational improvements and the completion of margin enhancement projects that we have underway at our Pryor and El Dorado facilities |
| So as we sit here today, we're really confident that inventories are really low out in the field |
| With that said though, we do expect a healthy increase in adjusted EBITDA for Q1 '24 relative to the fourth quarter of 2023, representing a solid start to the year highlighted by strong ammonia demand, improved downstream production, and lower natural gas costs |
| For the full-year of 2023, our total recordable injury rate was 0.33, a significant improvement over 2022 |
| The key takeaway here is that this represents a significant competitive advantage to U.S |
| During 2024, we expect to make even greater strides in enhancing the earnings power of our manufacturing assets through the capital investment and increased operational discipline |
| Additionally, we positioned ourselves to be a leader in the production of low-carbon ammonia products that we believe will be a critical enabler of global energy transition |
| We achieved a solid increase in ammonia production volume and we did it while significantly improving our overall safety performance |
| At these levels, we believe farmer incomes are healthy and that strong incentive exists to maximize corn yields through the application of nitrogen fertilizers |
| As a result, we expect nitrogen fertilizer demand to be strong for the spring planting season, supporting robust fertilizer prices |
| We have been pleased with our commercial team's ability to leverage this project as part of our new business development efforts as we have been receiving strong expressions of interest in potential long-term offtake agreements for the low-carbon products that we will be producing at El Dorado |
| We expect this to allow us to capitalize on the current low prices, which should enhance our margins |
| This project represents an important step in the emergence of LSB as a leader in the global energy transition and is potentially transformative to our growth profile as demand for clean energy increases |
| single-family housing starts have rebounded, and mining commodity prices remain stable |
| This steady progress reflects the investments we've made in our facilities and the operating culture change that has occurred across our manufacturing facilities as we strive to be a top-tier operator of our plants |
| So we think we have opportunities to take advantage of higher pricing during the second quarter |
| Although, today we're running that plant a bit higher than 385, as our technical teams are really doing a good job to push rates |
| At El Dorado, the addition of 5,000 tons of nitric acid storage allows us to better optimize our product mix, ultimately translating into incremental profits |
| The Pryor urea expansions will enable us to produce an additional 75,000 tons of UAN per year, giving us the ability to upgrade more of the ammonia we produce at that facility into a higher-margin product |
| 2023 was a significant -- with a year of significant progress for us in the transformation of our company, while product selling price trends were unfavorable, we were still able to generate meaningful cash flow and maintain our strong financial position |
| Combined, these accomplishments are a clear indicator that our ongoing safety and reliability initiatives are taking root |
| This site has continued to strive for excellence and represents a model for what we believe all of our manufacturing operations can achieve |
| While we are in the early phases of this project, we are encouraged by the progress we've made thus far and by the level of engagement, commitment, and cooperation of the companies we are partnering with in this leading-edge endeavor |
| More recently though we have had conversations with potential European off-takers, and are encouraged as we now believe Europe to be a viable target market as well |
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| farmers this past fall that could limit spring pre-plant application, the impact of lower natural gas feedstock costs in Europe relative to early last year, and sluggish nitrogen demand from Asian and European industrial producers |
| With respect to our fourth quarter financial results, adjusted EBITDA was lower, compared to the record fourth quarter of 2022 |
| And then it's pretty documented we had some issues with our downstream plants, namely our nitric acid plants, which really did not allow us to upgrade as much product as we would have liked |
| We expect that our ammonia production will be down by approximately 34,000 tons, as compared to 2023, due to the turnarounds we have scheduled at Pryor and Cherokee |
| And maybe on the ammonia point, because I was reflecting on the outlook kind of guidance details you gave for '24, and going back to the '23 actuals versus what you said you targeted a year ago, and your gross ammonia production for '23 came in below what you targeted |
| European gas prices spiked during 2022 and have come down significantly in 2023 due to a combination of a warm winter, and heavy LNG imports |
| This was largely due to a decline in market prices for nitrogen products relative to the prior year, which was the case for each of our quarters during 2023 |
| Based on current pricing levels and volume trends, we expect our first quarter 2024 adjusted EBITDA to be lower than the first quarter of 2023 when the average Tampa Ammonia price was more than 55% higher than the average for this year's quarter |
| I think when we took a step back, we said prices are a little bit lower, so the market's a little bit soft in general |
| We had a power outage down at El Dorado or El Dorado site, so that caused some downtime |
| The impact of weaker selling prices for our products relative to the prior year is the major factor in the year-over change in EBITDA |
| We're now in a position where inventories are really tight on most fertilizers, a lot of that has to do with lack of imports, plus some of the storms that we had earlier this year took some production out and therefore lower inventories |
| due in part to an absence of Chinese imports, rendering supply, relatively tight ahead of the spring planting season |
| With respect to our outlook for the first quarter, Tampa ammonia currently sits at $445 per metric ton, down from $625 in late 2023 |
| UANs lagged a little |
| It's uneconomical to capture today |
| So I'd be surprised if it's got much of an impact on us |
| You alluded to an earlier comment around the weather in January impacting industry production, and at least one of your peers publicly has commented to that effect as well |
| The weather is really cooperating |
| We've seen UAN lag a little bit, and the reason I think UAN has really led the pricing increase just happens to be less imports coming into the U.S., especially with China putting an export ban on urea, and really being out of the market |
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