Earnings Sentiment

Sentiment Analysis of the earnings transcript to help figure out if there are any bullish or bearish sentiments that could be gathered from it. We're doing ML and AI based analysis on the earnings call to get some more insights.

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Sentiment Distribution

   

Earnings Call Transcript Word Cloud

     

Bullish Statements during Earnings call

Statement
We’re excited about the opportunities to grow our business and footprint in New Mexico, which has been a part of our long-term vision
As I touched on earlier, we demonstrated strong operational execution over the past year
As a new entrant into this market, we already have a strong competitive advantage with available processing capacity today and treating and blending capabilities
We are extremely proud of what we have accomplished, and we are excited for what is yet to come on our growth journey
We strongly believe that the Permian will continue to deliver and meet the world’s growing demand for crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas
Even at $70-barrel WTI producer economics are advantaged supporting continued growth and development
At Kinetik, we are proud to be a part of the value chain that delivers a cost-effective, reliable, and lower carbon energy solution
The producer has been working to address the issue, while gradually ramping up volumes as we complete our system-wide front-end aiming treating project, which will allow us to accept a broader range of gas quality and provide treating and blending services to our customers further expanding our margins
With our system-wide treating and blending capabilities almost fully complete, we are uniquely positioned to support the next phase of basin growth
And so, they themselves also create great opportunity and, obviously, a fairly attractive margin upside
This pipeline connects our processing facilities directly to Waha, providing our customers with enhanced system reliability and flow assurance
We also achieved record processed gas volumes each quarter and provided safe and reliable operating services to our customers
And, I think, we see some pretty good opportunities still to sell out the balance of our capacity
This is a testament to our system reliability, customer-first approach, and tailored service offerings
Taking the midpoints of our 2024 adjusted EBITDA and capital expenditures guidance, this translates into nearly $450 million of incremental free cash flow before dividends year-over-year, marking a significant increase in Kinetik’s free cash flow generation
Additionally, we expect to see a full-year benefit to gas and produced water volumes attributed to the Permian Resources Incentive Agreement that started during the fourth quarter of last year
Our recently completed projects drive growth at both the Midstream Logistics and Pipeline Transportation segments
Looking back over the last couple of years, our gas volume growth rate has been approximately double the growth rate of the underlying Permian Basin, suggesting that Kinetik has significantly increased its gas processing market share in the basin
According to the EIA, this past January, 118 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas was consumed in the United States alone, the most in any month on record, with forecasts expecting gas demand to grow upwards of 20% by 2030
We exited the year with processed gas volumes of 1.56 billion cubic feet per day in the month of December, and fourth quarter average processed gas volumes were 1.54 billion cubic feet per day, representing a more than 22% increase when compared to the fourth quarter 2022
But the good news is, it’s nice to be in the position to have free cash flow and to actually be able to have that conversation where every constituency has a voice and a role to play and we decide as a team what makes the most value for this company
In 2024, our Pipeline Transportation segment will have the full-year benefit from Delaware Link and the PHP expansion
Kinetik offers a differentiated service to New Mexico producers as we can provide flow assurance on a fully integrated solution from wellhead to premium Gulf Coast markets on wholly-owned or majority-owned infrastructure today
And as a result, gas fee-based gross profit increased by 13%, despite lower commodity prices
The Permian is a well-class resource and remains one of the most prolific cost-competitive basins
And, I think, as long as that dynamic stays, we’re going to see opportunities to continue to gain market share in areas of the basin where we don’t have market share, given we do have that open space for processing today
One is, we have a pretty healthy dividend, just look at our yield
The Pipeline Transportation segment is expected to contribute 40% of total Kinetik adjusted EBITDA in 2024, representing a 15% increase over the past 2 years
We are encouraged by recent well results from these formations and zones
Looking at our segment results, our Midstream Logistics segment generated an adjusted EBITDA of $146 million in the quarter, up 10% year-over-year
       

Bearish Statements during earnings call

Statement
It is worth noting our total operated capital came in 5% below our internal estimates for full year 2023
Our guidance reflects the return to a reduced capital program following the completion of last year’s growth projects, and in fact is slightly below our previously communicated expectations
With Permian rig activity finding a floor at approximately 310 rigs for the last several months, which is nearly a 15% reduction from the peak reached in April 2023, we think that 2024 will struggle to keep pace with 2023’s production growth levels
But when you have 45 wells coming online from one part of the system, it can be a little bit difficult for both the operator midstream and upstream to handle that elevated level of unexpected CO2
On a quarterly basis, we forecast first quarter 2024 volumes to be lower than fourth quarter 2023 as a result of molecular sieve bed change-outs at several processing facilities
Looking ahead to 2024, we remain in a period of volatile commodity prices driven by economic uncertainty and geopolitical turmoil
I think in context, multiple benches done by this particular producers, and there was – it was an, I would say, unexpected result that it was more elevated than they anticipated
In fact, with increasing gas quality issues associated with CO2 and H2S, treating is emerging as one of the most overlooked capacity constraints within the basin
So, Lea County, I think, has more challenges from a gas quality and, I think, the further upward you go, the tougher it gets, actually gets, meaning the more impurities there are and the more elevated the levels
As Jamie touched on, commodity prices will continue to be choppy in 2024
However, we have and will continue to de-risk our earnings and balance sheet
We exited the year with processed gas volumes at just under our revised guidance due to a modest shift in producer turn-in-line schedules in the fourth quarter and a package of new gas curtailed, because of elevated CO2 concentrations
So we don’t really expect – we expect this to continue to be an issue just basin wide
The shallower zones experienced elevated CO2 concentrations that did not meet the contractual gas quality specifications
I think it’s the first time since in service in 2018-2019, so it’s probably overdue, and we could see that the recoveries weren’t, I would say, at the level that we really, really knew, in fact, that equipment could actually extract
And then just shifting a little bit to the CapEx budget, we saw a meaningful step down this year, even including elevated maintenance spend and remaining project spend
I don’t think it wasn’t crazy outside of the ballpark kind of thing, but it was more elevated than they anticipated
It’s a tough one
And I think that shouldn’t be lost on people
I would also note that with Waha prices remaining depressed and volatile, Apache is now planning for the next phase of Alpine High development activity in 2025
   

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