Sentiment Analysis of the earnings transcript to help figure out if there are any bullish or bearish sentiments that could be gathered from it. We're doing ML and AI based analysis on the earnings call to get some more insights.
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| Statement |
|---|
| Diving a bit deeper into our results for the quarter, our average daily production grew 18% from the prior year's quarter to 26,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, driven by continued strong performance from recent wells turned to sales and new wells placed online in the Permian and Eagle Ford during the quarter |
| So that's exciting for us |
| We delivered company records on multiple fronts and are well-positioned to continue that momentum into 2024 |
| The fourth quarter also benefited from another great period of execution by our operating partners in which they turned 80 gross or 4.6 net wells to sales, which contributed to the production beat |
| And I'm proud to say that we made great strides on all the above |
| 2023 proved to be an exceptional year of performance for Granite Ridge |
| And so, those guys, it's impressive what they continue to dig up |
| In the fourth quarter, we achieved a company record, exceeding 26,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, and exited the year with a strong balance sheet and liquidity to continue our capital deployment and shareholder return plans |
| Overall, we were able to grow our oil volumes by 14% and our total production by 23% year-over-year |
| Continue to demonstrate the value of our adaptable, resilient business model, continue to strengthen the organization, and make the business more investable, and patiently allocate capital for the best risk-adjusted returns |
| While some of that be it was from new investments made in 2023, most of it came from acceleration and solid execution from our operating partners |
| As Luke outlined, the initial results from that activity has been very encouraging, with our operating partner delivering results ahead of AFE performance expectations |
| We are proud of our accomplishments during 2023 and look forward to future performance in 2024 with a record 16 net wells in process at year-end |
| 2023 was a record year on many fronts for Granite Ridge |
| I think it's exciting |
| At Granite Ridge, we drive value by quickly recycling net cash flow into opportunities with the best risk-adjusted returns |
| As in the past, I want to thank everyone involved, including our amazing internal folks, outstanding operating partners, and solid team of supporting external professionals for their continued hard work and dedication |
| We had three primary objectives going into 2023: strengthen the organization; make the company more investable; and continue our legacy of driving value for investors by generating, evaluating, and investing in opportunities with the best risk-adjusted returns |
| For the full year, we delivered oil production above the high end of our guidance while placing a record number of wells online |
| So that was really just an opportunity to partner with fantastic firm that we're excited about |
| We have a strong inventory there and we could even pick up another rig |
| We haven't put a lot of money to work in gas other than this, where we did have that partnership, and we had good line of sight in the development plan |
| As we continue to execute quarter-over-quarter, eventually the market will reward our company that currently yields over 7%, has less than 0.5 turn of debt, and had production growth of over 20% with a higher share price |
| So, we still think it's a good buy |
| Right now, that number sits at $35 million, but we expect that will increase as our business development efforts continue to generate attractive opportunities |
| Trading volume is up 10x from last January, research coverage is up from 1 to 4, and the number of reported shareholders is up over 5x from year-end '22 to year-end '23 |
| Despite significantly lower hydrocarbon prices in 2023 over 2022, we generated $305 million of adjusted EBITDAX and increased proved reserves by 6% year-over-year |
| We started 2023 expecting 9% year-over-year production growth and turned in 23%, including over 26,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day for the fourth quarter |
| And we look forward to having more results to share with the market on why this is really differentiator, and how it'll continue to be a driver of value for us going forward |
| On the flip side, if the market just continues to strengthen, we can accelerate development |
| Statement |
|---|
| First quarter may be significantly below, probably low 40%s |
| On more than one occasion, the PM of larger institutions told us that they'd like to buy Granite Ridge in their personal account, but the trading volume is a challenge for the fund to take a position |
| We struggle with that |
| I'd anticipate the first half of the year will be below that |
| If I had to guess, as you know, the SEC-approved reserves that we put out there are difficult for non-op because we're limited on what we can book in terms of PUDs, mineral guys face the same challenge |
| Overall, we expect a production decline of 5% during the first half of 2024 before additional wells are placed online during the summer, resulting in total annual growth of approximately 7% versus 2023 |
| We expect a bit of decline from the fourth quarter to the first quarter, maybe 5% if you adjust for the Vital sale, though that may look more like 10%, if comparing fourth quarter reported to first quarter reported |
| Per unit lease operating cost were $6.43 per Boe, an 8% decrease compared to the third quarter |
| Additionally, we spent an incremental $151 million of cash and credit facility borrowings for $180 million invested for growth and ended the year with leverage of only 0.3x, below our target of 0.5x or around $150 million |
| A couple of other data points that may be relevant for the year are that we believe 2024 maintenance CapEx to be $175 million to $200 million, and we expect our production-based corporate annual decline to be in the low 40% |
| And so, because of that, I think that you'll see our oil cut go down at the beginning of the year |
| It's tough |
| And that third will go down dramatically |
| We knew what their plans were and they're like-minded |
| As usual, our production will be lumpy |
| And so, that program expired on its own terms at the end of '23 and was not renewed, not because we don't think it's an attractive value |
| That said, look, if there's a tremendous dislocation in the market at some point this year, we could always change that |
| So, it wouldn't surprise me if you saw that same thing this year |
| So, if we see a significant change in the environment such that we want to pause, that's great |
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