Sentiment Analysis of the earnings transcript to help figure out if there are any bullish or bearish sentiments that could be gathered from it. We're doing ML and AI based analysis on the earnings call to get some more insights.
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| Statement |
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| And for the first time in a while, actually saw a nice lift and got a good return off of those promotions |
| And we finished the year with branded retail volume only down 30 basis points, which was a substantial improvement and overall volume improved |
| So we're feeling really good about where we are so far |
| We're proud of our team's accomplishments in the challenging consumer environment we're facing |
| Our brands performed very well, gaining unit and dollar share for the first since the first quarter of 2022 |
| The team is excited |
| We're excited about the multitude of future growth prospects for Dave's and our other brands, and we are investing in marketing and innovation to capitalize on that potential |
| Our 2024 forecast calls for continued solid results despite these category headwinds |
| We expect these results to be first half weighted, benefiting from wraparound pricing and branded retail, new pricing and selected food service accounts and moderating commodity costs |
| We've got nice momentum |
| And of course, behind that, we've got a nice innovation pipeline four days coming with the snack bites in the back half and even more beyond that in '25 |
| So from a gross margin standpoint, we expect better results |
| However, the profitability of all three of those businesses has improved markedly |
| So as we said, we do expect gross margin improvement this year |
| We're excited about the prospects we have in front of us |
| However, the exciting thing about that for us is the opportunity we have ahead to refill that capacity with higher margin volume, which was the intention all along |
| But we've got a really significant opportunity ahead of us to refill that extreme low margin business that we've exited with much more profitable business |
| And I mentioned earlier that what we're thrilled about is the opportunity we have in front of us and believe me, there is a lot of opportunity to go back and refill that capacity with higher-margin business, which will not only drive profitability, but go a long way to help bring the unit volume back up |
| So really good progress on those parts of the business, somewhat offset by category weakness in commodity cost and those effects on other parts of the business |
| I mean that's what differentiates the loaf items and the breakfast items, it's just the superior quality |
| So as we noted in the prepared remarks, really pleased with the results in '23 |
| But if you look at our market share performance, it's been quite admirable what we've been able to do even in this environment |
| Now certainly, we understand that market share performance in a declining category doesn't necessarily translate in the bottom line profitability, but it does show the investments that we're making in our brands enable us to continue relative strong performance in a pressured category |
| We saw a nice gross margin increase in the fourth quarter, and we expect that to continue |
| The other thing that I would note though is our volume performance continued to improve throughout '23 |
| And frankly, also aided by all the things that you just said, baker of the future delivering better OEE results |
| It's a great growth market for us |
| And we could see more positive volume performance in the second half |
| I do think it's going to help us tremendously as we bring in the three additional protein SKUs this year, giving us more visibility on the shelf |
| First of all, it's a great product |
| Statement |
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| Our second half forecast incorporates more caution due to the uncertain consumer and promotional environment |
| But simply put, elasticities have remained below our forecast and below historic levels kind of across all those channels you mentioned |
| And it's clearly obvious the category continues to be under pressure and with private label trade down |
| But frankly, even DKB's profitability was down last year pretty significantly because we had substantially higher organic wheat cost last year |
| So obviously, that's a negative |
| And I guess just secondly, I think inherent in the guide is potential for ongoing volume declines |
| I mean, as Riyal commented and as you saw in the script too, we are being a little more cautious on the consumer in the back half |
| If you think about last year, the first half was tougher than the back |
| In the breakdown for the 2024 sales guide, I know you guys mentioned you have some wraparound pricing benefit in the first half and some business exits that negatively impact the volume side |
| Jim Salera In your prepared remarks, you mentioned some uncertainty in 2024, obviously, around the consumer and promotions |
| So that will somewhat pressure margins from an EBITDA or bottom line standpoint |
| But again, just given the uncertainty and the relative weakness of the category, we thought caution was prudent at least at this point |
| That does, particularly from a labor standpoint effect those margins somewhat |
| We were down, I think, 2.4 in the fourth quarter as opposed to 4.1 if you look back to the third quarter |
| But at the same time, part of our reason for caution is the offset of what a higher promotional environment could look like in that circumstance |
| But they were down roughly 500 basis points last year just because of the increased organic wheat costs, which this year will moderate somewhat |
| And even though as we noted in our remarks, we even promoted a bit more in the fourth quarter just because, as you know, there is seasonality in our business not being a big dinner roll supplier that the fourth quarter can be a little bit volatile |
| So I mean it sounds like you're being a little bit more cautious and maybe you're a bit more rational than others |
| Mitchell Pinheiro You're a little cautious on the second half |
| Because it seems like and we've talked about this in the past, but part of the challenge is you have this channel shift dynamic that's going on and from the branded retailers' perspective or over the branded food company's perspective rather, if you're putting promo dollars in the channel, but the consumer is in the wrong channel, you're essentially just giving price away, at least that's kind of the way we viewed it |
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