Sentiment Analysis of the earnings transcript to help figure out if there are any bullish or bearish sentiments that could be gathered from it. We're doing ML and AI based analysis on the earnings call to get some more insights.
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| Statement |
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| Our resident retention remains very good |
| We've got a great legal team, a great operations team that follows up on all that |
| We do have excellent transparency and excellent visibility into who's where in the cycle |
| We continue to see and expect the strength in the East Coast markets, and we'll model some solid growth in Southern California, driven in part by the improvements in delinquency that we just talked about |
| Turning to 2024, the long-term health and outlook of our business remains positive, with favorable tailwinds that should support performance |
| While job growth expectations for 2024 are lower than 2023 levels, we'll continue to benefit from demand from a well-employed resident demographic, we think are going to rent with us longer, given the cost of single-family ownership and powerful social trends like delayed marriage and smaller families that I previously mentioned |
| We also see a significant benefit from lower deliveries of new supply in our established markets compared to the elevated deliveries in the Sunbelt markets over the next few years |
| Median household incomes in the area and among our residents at the property are around $100,000, making rentership a good financial and quality of life decision |
| We are well positioned to further our portfolio diversification by taking advantage of acquisition opportunities that we believe are likely to arise from the substantial development pipeline that is delivering in our expansion markets over the next two years |
| We continue to produce very good results with residential same-store revenue growth of 4.4% in the third quarter driven by generally healthy fundamentals in our business and some improvement in delinquency, although not as much as we expected |
| New York, Boston and Washington, D.C., comprising a bit more than 40% of our net operating income are all having very good years and are meeting or exceeding our expectations |
| Demand and occupancy remain healthy, especially across our East Coast markets and absorption and our results in the Washington, D.C |
| As I mentioned earlier on the demand side, generally, the employment picture, particularly for the college educated, remain solid and supportive of continuing demand into 2024 |
| We continue to believe that we will see meaningful improvement in 2024 |
| While recognizing challenges in these two markets, overall, our business remains healthy |
| Even with these now muted expectations, 2023 is on track to deliver very strong same-store revenue growth with several positive trends that we expect to continue into 2024 and support our business |
| First, our residents remain in good shape financially with rent-to-income ratios remaining at 20% portfolio-wide |
| Overall, the job market and our residents remain resilient, which would expect -- which we expect to carry into 2024 |
| As you can see from the press release and management presentation, the business continues to do well in most of our markets, with our East Coast markets outperforming our West Coast markets |
| We will continue to enhance our operating platform to take advantage of the opportunities that the markets present while delivering a seamless customer experience to our residents |
| On the supply side, overall, we are favorably positioned, particularly compared to those concentrated in the Sunbelt |
| Let me wrap up by saying that the apartment business continues to be good with favorable demographics driving demand and limited new supply in most of our markets |
| We should benefit from less direct competitive supply pressure in most of our established markets while DC will be about the same and Seattle will have elevated supply in 2024 |
| So, we're very excited about it |
| I mean it has been a strong performer over time |
| Renewals have been really stable for us and really have been doing better than what we thought |
| The East Coast markets continue to outperform the West Coast |
| So, putting all of these factors together, our overall revenue outlook for 2024 right now anticipate solid growth led by the East Coast markets |
| So, there's -- the framing in that market is very good |
| They're doing a great job |
| Statement |
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| The main culprit here seems to be a lack of job growth for our target renter demographic |
| As I will discuss shortly, San Francisco and Seattle are experiencing more pricing pressure than we previously expected |
| The uncertainty of back to the office from the big tech employers, combined with their slowdown in new hiring is keeping a lid on demand |
| So, for example, post-GFC, EQR same-store revenues in San Francisco, they were down over 2% each year for two years in a row |
| Given the weakness in our Seattle and San Francisco portfolios, we will likely be slightly more negative than that |
| But I could tell you that we do expect like Seattle and the expansion markets to be pressured from new supply |
| Meanwhile, the Sunbelt markets are forecasted at just around 6% and our expansion markets range between a low 4% in Atlanta and a high of nearly 10% in Austin, which will result in pronounced supply pressure |
| New lease change is negative, which is normal for the month, and will continue to get more negative as pricing trend, which is presented on Page 6 of the management presentation, continues to decline for the balance of the year |
| I recognize that, obviously, there's seasonality here, right, things on a sequential basis are going to worsen |
| market continue to impress |
| And given the weakness in San Fran and Seattle that, you expect you'll be slightly more negative than that |
| But further than you expected and occupancy, I think based on a bit of a tough comp |
| November goes down to like a negative 3% to a negative 4% and December would be like a negative 4% or negative 5% |
| But the new and renewals getting softer, blended towards 2% for the fourth quarter, negative new leases |
| And that's generally been the challenge with some of the portfolios we've seen over the last couple of years is that the mix of properties and locations just aren't compelling enough |
| It is important to note that our 2023 acquisition activity was paid forward capital from our asset sales without incurring any dilution as we took a cautious approach to transaction activity given the pricing uncertainty and low volumes in the marketplace |
| With the spike in the tenure, it's really uncertain what the market is doing right now |
| If you do sort of the -- I guess the implied change, if you stripped out Seattle and San Francisco, the number was only down 30 bps, but that kind of implies that those markets were down kind of high single digits to almost 10% in October which is sort of like a month-free or rents are down with some concessions |
| So right now, you're seeing we're putting up a number in October, that's a negative 3.1% because of the inclusion of San Francisco and Seattle and really the pronounced concession use that we have going on in those markets |
| I think we have a little bit of a ramp-up period, but we do expect outside pressure in that market |
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