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| Statement |
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| refining fleet has the highest average complexity, lowest natural gas cost, and for inland refineries, the lowest crude cost relative to other refiners around the world |
| In summary, CVR Energy had another strong year with strong contributions from our petroleum and fertilizer businesses |
| We continue to see meaningful benefits on cost and capture rates in our system by buying crude at the wellhead and we continue to work to increase the volumes of our gathering systems and reduce our purchases of Cushing WTI |
| In our Fertilizer segment, production was strong at both facilities in 2023 as a result of the turnarounds completed in 2022, and we set multiple new production and shipping records at both facilities |
| Demand was strong for the fall ammonia application, and despite softening in grain prices, we believe farmer economics remained favorable at these fertilizer prices |
| Although grain prices have pulled back with the recent decline in fertilizer pricing, we believe farmer economics remain attractive |
| And I think that bodes well for exports, which bodes well for the Brent TI, especially when you look at the freight rates have gone up substantially with the Red Sea issues that are occurring in the Middle East |
| Despite year-over-year declines in cracks, crack spreads and fertilizer prices in the fourth quarter we posted another quarter of solid results driven by lower RIN expenses, higher utilization of our assets and reduced operating costs mainly due to lower natural gas and electricity prices |
| We were pleased with our favorable ruling from the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals in November holding that EPA’s denial of the Wynnewood Refinery company’s small refinery exemptions for 2017 through 2021 were permissibly retroactive contrary to the law and arbitrary and capricious |
| If successfully completed, we believe these projects combined would increase our overall margin capture by 4% |
| And we currently expect another period of strong demand in the upcoming spring planting season |
| So the ultimate target there is really improving capture, and that’s all in that 4% number I kind of talked about earlier |
| continues to increase with the average production volumes for 2023 increasing over 600,000 barrels per day compared to 2022 |
| In the Fertilizer segment, both facilities ran well during the quarter with a consolidated ammonia utilization of 94% |
| As we approach the change in RBP season in the spring, elevated turnaround activity across the fleet and low inventories of summer grade gasoline could drive a normalization of inventory levels and offer some upside for summertime gas cracks |
| In Group 3, the demand trends are a little better, with year-to-date gasoline demand down about 5% compared to 2019, and distillate demand up almost 8% |
| Adjusted EBITDA on the Fertilizer segment was $38 million for the fourth quarter with increased sales volumes and lower natural gas and electricity costs somewhat upsetting the decline in prices relative to the prior year period |
| We think this dynamic, along with elevated freight rates amid the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, is supportive of a wider breadth TI differential, which has averaged over $4.50 per barrel for 2023 |
| Lastly, on the Fertilizer business, we had a pretty good deferred revenue in cash sitting on the books at the end of the third quarter |
| Further delays in start-ups and a pick-up in economic and industrial activity, especially improvement of the Cass Freight Index, could provide upsides for diesel cracks this year |
| Full demand for ammonia application was the strongest we have seen in recent years |
| As demand moderates for refined products in the U.S., we believe product exports will grow and crude exports will continue to increase from the harvesting of shale oil formations |
| The HOBO spread improved from the third quarter, primarily due to declines in soybean oil prices |
| SAF markets? If you did go through with that project, looks like European SAF premiums are a lot stronger than what we might see in the U.S |
| So… Paul Cheng Yeah, I mean, the yield improvement sounds so great |
| Additionally, I’d like to thank our employees for their hard work, commitment towards safe, reliable, and environmentally responsible operations |
| If the project is approved by the Board and successfully implemented, it gives the ability to choose the optimum feedstock mix and will be the only nitrogen fertilizer plant in the United States with that flexibility |
| Volumes in our gathering systems averaged over 140,000 barrels per day in 2023, an increase of 18,000 barrels per day compared to 2022 |
| And then the ISON [ph] catalyst life will be vastly improved, because you’re stripping all the impurities away that tend to poison that catalyst |
| We are also making progress on several margin enhancing projects at the refineries |
| Statement |
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| The mild winter in Europe also led to a decline in natural gas prices, which contributed to an overall decline in gas cracks as well |
| RINs expense for the quarter, excluding the mark-to-market impact, was $65 million, or $3.19 per barrel, which negatively impacted our capture rate for the quarter by approximately 14% |
| Year-to-date gasoline demand is down approximately 7%, and distillate demand down almost 12% compared to the same period of 2019 |
| The bulk of the decrease was from the third quarter came from the decline in distillate crack, which was driven in part by increased inventories as the U.S |
| Our fourth quarter results include an unfavorable inventory valuation impact of $90 million, unrealized derivative gains of $67 million, and a reduction to quarterly RINs expense due to a mark-to-market impact on our estimated outstanding RFS obligation of $57 million |
| Benchmark cracks softened during the fourth quarter with Group 2-1-1 averaging $23.66 per barrel |
| So, I think we ended a year slightly negative, but not too far from breakeven |
| Our prepay value dropped pretty dramatically down to like $3 million, so more headwinds, but all relatively expected from our perspective |
| We see your CFO is negative, but looking at the working capital number, I think it’s down from 3Q |
| On the diesel side of the equation, the reduction in supply that was expected from Russian export ban never materialized as trade flows adjusted and Russian volumes found homes in other countries |
| Despite the weakness in gas cracks in the fourth quarter, the incentive to blend butane over the winter drove the refining fleet to run hard and led to a swell in inventory levels |
| The fourth quarter hit, and bean oil dropped like a rock |
| However, this was more than offset by the decline in D4 RIN prices and a weaker basis for California diesel |
| RIN prices declined from extremely elevated levels we have seen over the past few years averaging $4.67 per barrel for the fourth quarter, although they are still too high |
| So, I think we’re below 3%, 4% |
| We continue to monitor the planned start-up of several large-scale refineries around the world expected this year, although historically these types of projects tend to commence lower and later than expected |
| For the Fertilizer segment, we estimate our first quarter 2024 ammonia utilization rate to be between 86% and 91%, which will be impacted by some planned downtime at Coffeyville in the quarter |
| Although if you include the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, inventories continue to set new 5-year lows |
| But, the tariff out there is really large, and there’s a lot of constraints on shipping and transloading going off the West Coast |
| As the winter months came on that slowed a little bit, and as the prices fell, liability dropped pretty dramatically quarter-over-quarter |
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