Sentiment Analysis of the earnings transcript to help figure out if there are any bullish or bearish sentiments that could be gathered from it. We're doing ML and AI based analysis on the earnings call to get some more insights.
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| Statement |
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| An exceptional result not just in our industry anywhere in the capital markets, and we believe those results will only become more impressive as we're well positioned to continue to take advantage of this opportunity moving forward |
| So the $75 million to $100 million that we guided to we have a good line-of-sight on what we can accomplish next year |
| Speaking of the New Technologies Group, it continues to deliver tangible results in both positive free cash flow and environmental impact |
| As Nick mentioned in his commentary, Nav and the operations team have done an outstanding job in compressing cycle times and accelerating our drilling and completion activity |
| It remain on pace to exceed our original goals supported by our sustainable business model that has and will continue to generate significant long-term per share value for our owners |
| And it compares favorably to the classic, best-in-class share repurchasers, like AutoZone is an example, where AutoZone has retired shares at about a minus 8% CAGR over a 25-year period |
| As we said last quarter, free cash flow from New Tech has the potential to be meaningfully higher in the years beyond 2024 |
| In fact, the team has been successful in further improving cycle times and accelerating activity, and Alan will go into some more of those details in a minute and how it impacts our full year production outlook and capital timing |
| So we believe that our share repurchase program provides an opportunity to create incredible value for our long-term, like mind -- like-minded owners, who are going to benefit as their per share value continues to grow meaningfully over the coming years |
| We're just getting started with New Tech, and we think this business has the potential of being an even bigger, free cash flow growth driver for the company moving forward |
| As Nick mentioned, this quarter represents the 15th consecutive quarter of free cash flow generation through the execution of our sustainable business model and long-term strategic plan |
| Looking ahead, we expect this quarter to mark the trough of our free cash flow generation, as the confluence of lower capital, higher expected gas pricing and growth in our New Tech cash flows, solidifies our confidence in achieving robust free cash flow generation in the quarters ahead |
| Now, last, but certainly not least, we continue to have conviction that our shares are materially undervalued |
| The near term New Tech free cash flow growth is through our ability to monetize environmental attributes, tied to our waste methane abatement operations in Virginia |
| And our New Tech effort is poised to lead the charge into the hydrogen economy with the atoms for clean ammonia project, where we expect to provide ultra-low carbon intensity feedstock and carbon capture and sequestration services |
| Further, as Nick mentioned, we continue to have good line-of-sight to the New Technologies Group contributing approximately $75 million to $100 million in free cash flow in 2024 |
| So all that stuff adds to that meaningful growth opportunities in '25 onwards, but next year, we have good line-of-sight on what we need to do to get to that $75 million to $100 number |
| And that's the consistent execution and clinical capital allocation, these things drive the creation of meaningful for share value over the long-term |
| To conclude, the sustainable business model that we have created is continuing to deliver value to our shareholders throughout the commodity cycle |
| Our focus for the remainder of 2023 will remain on safe and compliant execution to develop our extensive natural gas asset base, accelerating free cash flow growth from our New Technologies Business on consistent and clinical capital allocation to grow our long-term free cash flow per share, and most importantly, as always on ensuring all our decisions continue to reflect a long term owner mindset |
| Third quarter of 2023, marks our 15th consecutive quarter of free cash flow generation, despite experiencing what I would call, extremely challenging in basin pricing, and our continued execution of our long-term strategy, which started back in 2020 |
| Turning briefly to the balance sheet, our significant maturity runway and robust hedge book continue to be key components that underpin our capital allocation flexibility |
| Great accomplishment by our regulatory reporting and operations teams |
| We're to the point now where folks come to us for a lot of unit fill in, so we're able to monetize some of these non-core assets acreage at pretty attractive prices |
| And, again, like based on the pathways that's already created, 75 to 100, on an annual basis is something that we have a good line-of-sight on |
| And we achieved this by the way with zero safety incidents and zero environmental impacts |
| During the quarter, our operations team, it continued to execute efficiently |
| All the best |
| And it's a perfect example of our Appalachia first vision driving tangible results |
| And we now plan to add an additional 160 or so devices to our plan for the rest of the year, because we're ahead of schedule, due to that fantastic pace that the team has set |
| Statement |
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| And I guess, production is coming down slightly here in fourth quarter |
| So if I look at third quarter production, I mean, it looks like it's around a 570 Bcf annual run-rate in 3Q, a little bit lower than your '24 guide, of 580 Bcf |
| The gas that you're capturing now, we think about shale gas, shale gas declines overtime |
| You're going to see a significant decline in CapEx in Q4 |
| But you should expect to see everything kind of decline from this year as we make our way towards that $500 million a year |
| There is some seasonality aspects of it that some quarter might be better, some quarter might be worse in terms of how, how it kind of ends up |
| I mean, I can get kind of the, the high-end of the guide, but I guess that assumes that production can even come down a little bit in 4Q versus 3Q |
| But just like any, if you're in tune with, where some of these environmental attributes, pricing and all that stuff is, there is some level of fluctuation volatility in it |
| Those are some of the uncertainty factors on the mining base and some of their stuff that dictates what the volumes are |
| So that's why it's difficult to answer specifically what your question was |
| So right now, we slowed down the completion activity, because we're ahead of schedule |
| My question was really around, it seems like you're dropping a little activity |
| And we've kind of had to slow down to almost idle to frack crew, because we've been had a schedule |
| So are you seeing just limited operational activity in the fourth quarter? And similar question on the production |
| So we're not going to be in the game, you're not going to see this from us of setting goals that are decades away to sort of avoid accountability |
| We're not making, like government legislations and all those uncertainties into that guidance for next year |
| So we are just way ahead of schedule and you will see a big drop in Q4 capital next quarter |
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