Earnings Sentiment

Sentiment Analysis of the earnings transcript to help figure out if there are any bullish or bearish sentiments that could be gathered from it. We're doing ML and AI based analysis on the earnings call to get some more insights.

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Sentiment Distribution

   

Earnings Call Transcript Word Cloud

     

Bullish Statements during Earnings call

Statement
So we feel good about the trajectory as we work our way through this year of the nylon business
At the same time, our businesses did a really great job offsetting the impacts of that as well as minimizing it and making sure we took some reductions in raw materials and intermediates and things that didn't have as much of an EBITDA impact
So margins are expanding in the nylon business, and we continue to work, as we said in previous quarters, to get back some of that share that had been lost prior to us closing the transaction
Going forward, we feel like we're in a good position
Look, acetate tow had a really good year this year as a result of the work we did last year to really reset how we contracted and how we manage that business
And so we do see evidence for that is we are seeing variable margin improving in January as we start to see that inventory pull through of lower raws and fixed costs
So we feel pretty confident in that
So I feel very confident about that $150 million of synergies for 2024
So I'd say we feel good about the first quarter and the meaningful uplift that we'll have in M&M next year as well
Fundamentally, I would say we continue to see M&M as a really great business
Gulf Coast network in the past, we're able to manage those better in the future
So I feel really confident in our ability to deliver on that $150 million
So we feel very confident that the margins we're seeing right now here, at least in the first half are here to stay
If we look at first quarter, we do expect a really meaningful lift in M&M earnings in the first quarter and in fact, expect first quarter to be our highest quarterly EBITDA since the acquisition
I would say we have meaningfully exceeded that target for the year
I think the teams have done a really good job starting to get some of that back, which is important, and that will continue to happen again and will continue to see improvement in variable margin as we flow through what now has been reduced with lower cost raws and lower fixed costs
We do expect growth across both our heritage EM businesses and a significant uplift in M&M businesses even exclusive of synergies for the year
We feel good about where things are in the first half of the year, given the amount of inventory that we have in the order book as we see it
At Celanese, we're really good at execution
I mean DuPont was very strong in Asia, outside of China, which has actually been a pretty stable market this year
So that indicates to us that local demand is improving in China
And so really, as we move into '24, we see the benefits of that execution in '23 as well as all the steps we have in '24
So that's good, and that's supported by a slight movement upward in terms of VAM pricing as well
And we'll update that each year, but we feel like we're in a pretty good position where we are right now
So much like you saw last year, if you see some dislocation in markets, we tend to be able to benefit from that in the short term
And I would also say they've gone very well
So really excited to get this done
I would say '24 is very much a year of being able to deliver on the actions that were taken in '23
They were stronger in the U.S., which for auto has been stronger
We are seeing a lot of stability, which is a really good thing
       

Bearish Statements during earnings call

Statement
We have just been a very difficult backdrop that has made it hard to get the full value of the synergies as well as some of the volume recovery and growth that we had counted on
So I would say it's not specific to any one region, but it's been more of a challenge specific to the volume loss that happened in 2022 and the steps that we have taken to start recovering that volume in a fairly low demand environment
So there's still some downside on demand there
I think where we have seen the challenges since the acquisition in nylon is really around more standard grade and volumes that were lost in 2022 due to pricing decisions that were made at that time
But I would also say, due to reliability issues, it was very -- in high demand, it was very constrained in '21 and '22
And I think Japan just slipped back into recession
But the exports of goods out of China is still depressed, especially into Europe
This year, potentially, you will still have some pressure because of demand versus supply upstream in acetic acid
So it's not just pricing that's important, but it's raws as well, so raws have come down
A little bit lower than we had anticipated earlier in the year, but still above what we had thought at the beginning of the year
Several companies have impaired assets from acquisitions over the last couple of years
So I would say we're still assuming kind of below normal demand patterns, but without the destocking
In fact, a little bit, we've pushed back a little out of '23 into '24 with the delay in the project at Clear Lake
And we called out in the prepared comments that we had some unexpected outages that would have more or less been offset had we had the new acetic acid unit up and operating
And honestly, it just creates, I think, less kind of ups and downs from what we've historically seen because you get restocking, destocking to not have that in the future, certainly would not be a bad thing for us at all
We do expect recovery in auto versus the seasonal destocking that we experienced in the fourth quarter which was an issue for M&M
Michael Sison Just wondering if you could help bridge us from 1Q to the remaining quarters? I know there seems to be a lot more headwinds in Q1, more of the synergies and everything, all the positives are coming in 2Q to 3Q
What I'd say is most of the effect we've seen, I'd say, is temporary as people adjust to the new lengthened global supply chain
I think that's a possibility
And really, the reason for that was the volume related, just not seen volume recovery and some of the volume-related synergies not pulling through
   

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