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| Statement |
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| So we feel good about the trajectory as we work our way through this year of the nylon business |
| At the same time, our businesses did a really great job offsetting the impacts of that as well as minimizing it and making sure we took some reductions in raw materials and intermediates and things that didn't have as much of an EBITDA impact |
| So margins are expanding in the nylon business, and we continue to work, as we said in previous quarters, to get back some of that share that had been lost prior to us closing the transaction |
| Going forward, we feel like we're in a good position |
| Look, acetate tow had a really good year this year as a result of the work we did last year to really reset how we contracted and how we manage that business |
| And so we do see evidence for that is we are seeing variable margin improving in January as we start to see that inventory pull through of lower raws and fixed costs |
| So we feel pretty confident in that |
| So I feel very confident about that $150 million of synergies for 2024 |
| So I'd say we feel good about the first quarter and the meaningful uplift that we'll have in M&M next year as well |
| Fundamentally, I would say we continue to see M&M as a really great business |
| Gulf Coast network in the past, we're able to manage those better in the future |
| So I feel really confident in our ability to deliver on that $150 million |
| So we feel very confident that the margins we're seeing right now here, at least in the first half are here to stay |
| If we look at first quarter, we do expect a really meaningful lift in M&M earnings in the first quarter and in fact, expect first quarter to be our highest quarterly EBITDA since the acquisition |
| I would say we have meaningfully exceeded that target for the year |
| I think the teams have done a really good job starting to get some of that back, which is important, and that will continue to happen again and will continue to see improvement in variable margin as we flow through what now has been reduced with lower cost raws and lower fixed costs |
| We do expect growth across both our heritage EM businesses and a significant uplift in M&M businesses even exclusive of synergies for the year |
| We feel good about where things are in the first half of the year, given the amount of inventory that we have in the order book as we see it |
| At Celanese, we're really good at execution |
| I mean DuPont was very strong in Asia, outside of China, which has actually been a pretty stable market this year |
| So that indicates to us that local demand is improving in China |
| And so really, as we move into '24, we see the benefits of that execution in '23 as well as all the steps we have in '24 |
| So that's good, and that's supported by a slight movement upward in terms of VAM pricing as well |
| And we'll update that each year, but we feel like we're in a pretty good position where we are right now |
| So much like you saw last year, if you see some dislocation in markets, we tend to be able to benefit from that in the short term |
| And I would also say they've gone very well |
| So really excited to get this done |
| I would say '24 is very much a year of being able to deliver on the actions that were taken in '23 |
| They were stronger in the U.S., which for auto has been stronger |
| We are seeing a lot of stability, which is a really good thing |
| Statement |
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| We have just been a very difficult backdrop that has made it hard to get the full value of the synergies as well as some of the volume recovery and growth that we had counted on |
| So I would say it's not specific to any one region, but it's been more of a challenge specific to the volume loss that happened in 2022 and the steps that we have taken to start recovering that volume in a fairly low demand environment |
| So there's still some downside on demand there |
| I think where we have seen the challenges since the acquisition in nylon is really around more standard grade and volumes that were lost in 2022 due to pricing decisions that were made at that time |
| But I would also say, due to reliability issues, it was very -- in high demand, it was very constrained in '21 and '22 |
| And I think Japan just slipped back into recession |
| But the exports of goods out of China is still depressed, especially into Europe |
| This year, potentially, you will still have some pressure because of demand versus supply upstream in acetic acid |
| So it's not just pricing that's important, but it's raws as well, so raws have come down |
| A little bit lower than we had anticipated earlier in the year, but still above what we had thought at the beginning of the year |
| Several companies have impaired assets from acquisitions over the last couple of years |
| So I would say we're still assuming kind of below normal demand patterns, but without the destocking |
| In fact, a little bit, we've pushed back a little out of '23 into '24 with the delay in the project at Clear Lake |
| And we called out in the prepared comments that we had some unexpected outages that would have more or less been offset had we had the new acetic acid unit up and operating |
| And honestly, it just creates, I think, less kind of ups and downs from what we've historically seen because you get restocking, destocking to not have that in the future, certainly would not be a bad thing for us at all |
| We do expect recovery in auto versus the seasonal destocking that we experienced in the fourth quarter which was an issue for M&M |
| Michael Sison Just wondering if you could help bridge us from 1Q to the remaining quarters? I know there seems to be a lot more headwinds in Q1, more of the synergies and everything, all the positives are coming in 2Q to 3Q |
| What I'd say is most of the effect we've seen, I'd say, is temporary as people adjust to the new lengthened global supply chain |
| I think that's a possibility |
| And really, the reason for that was the volume related, just not seen volume recovery and some of the volume-related synergies not pulling through |
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