Shareholders will be ecstatic, with their stake up 51% over the past week following Aspen Aerogels, Inc.'s (NYSE:ASPN) latest full-year results. Revenues of US$239m were in line with expectations, although statutory losses per share were US$0.66, some 14% smaller than was expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Aspen Aerogels

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Aspen Aerogels' eight analysts is for revenues of US$361.8m in 2024. This would reflect a sizeable 52% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 69% to US$0.18. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$354.8m and losses of US$0.20 per share in 2024. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers were unchanged.

The average price target held steady at US$20.00, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Aspen Aerogels at US$24.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$14.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Aspen Aerogels' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 52% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 14% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.2% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Aspen Aerogels is expected to grow much faster than its industry.