Earnings Sentiment

Sentiment Analysis of the earnings transcript to help figure out if there are any bullish or bearish sentiments that could be gathered from it. We're doing ML and AI based analysis on the earnings call to get some more insights.

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Sentiment Distribution

   

Earnings Call Transcript Word Cloud

     

Bullish Statements during Earnings call

Statement
As you mentioned, property, we think we have tremendous opportunities there based on having five or six entry points across the world in terms of getting the best risk adjusted returns
We had a very strong fourth quarter, which highlighted a significant year of achievements at AIG
Throughout 2023, we continue to build on our underwriting excellence, reposition the portfolio through several divestitures, made meaningful progress towards the deconsolidation of Corebridge, including three secondary sell-downs, deliver disciplined premium growth in businesses where we have scale and outstanding combined ratios, and continue to execute on our balanced capital management strategy
I'm very proud of the work our colleagues delivered for all of our stakeholders throughout the entire year
In the fourth quarter, adjusted after-tax income per diluted common share was $1.79, an increase of 29% year-over-year, driven by continued strong underwriting results, 17% growth in net investment income, and excellent execution of our balanced capital management strategy that resulted in a 6% reduction in diluted common shares outstanding
And again, we're always going to be re-underwriting, but large programs or portions of the business in commercial, we really like what we have and think that there's real good opportunities for growth
Throughout the year, we've built efficiencies into our business which have allowed general insurers to absorb these costs
Global specialty, which includes businesses in marine, energy, trade, credit, and aviation, grew its net premiums written 10% year-over-year, driven by 88% retention, almost $750 million of new business, and rate increases of 7% for the year
And then when we look at our commercial portfolio, yes, I look at the fundamentals Elyse in terms of how are we growing the business and we gave you highlights in the fourth quarter about our new business which was simply terrific and that momentum continues
AIG's Strong fourth quarter results demonstrated our continued execution across all aspects of our strategy
If you exclude Financial Lines and these two programs that I just mentioned, our year-over-year net premiums written growth would have been 13%, which gives you a sense as to why we have significant confidence in our core portfolio where we saw meaningful overall growth for the year
The accident year combined ratio ex-CATs was 82.4%, a 170 basis point improvement, reflecting exceptional underwriting profitability in both North America and International
For all of our major proportional treaties across a range of classes, we improved or maintain our ceding commission levels, reflecting our market leading underwriting expertise, and position in the market
Global Commercial Lines delivered outstanding fourth quarter results with a calendar year combined ratio of 85.4%, a 90 basis point improvement over the prior year
Our property CAT aggregate cover was also successfully renewed with improved coverage, further reducing our volatility from frequency of loss
We were very pleased to have achieved broader coverage across all of our core occurrence towers
In the fourth quarter Global Commercial had very strong renewal retention of 86% in its enforced portfolio, as well as very strong new business performance
The headline is, that we were able to significantly improve our property CAT structure and reinsurance coverage provided
When applying the methodology I just described, AIG had a tremendous outcome with our reinsurance partners at the January 1 renewal season, building upon the very strong result achieved in a very challenging market in 2023
Our retentions have been fantastic and so, again, it's a portfolio that we have done such a great job to get to a place where we really like and find opportunities for stability and more growth
The 4Q 2023 calendar year combined ratio was 89.1%, 80 basis points better than the fourth quarter of 2022, and the accident year combined ratio ex-CATs was 87.9%, 50 basis points better
So I think we have a really good platform
Turning to general insurance, as Peter said, our underwriting results remain very strong
Fourth quarter APTI was $957 million, up 12% over the prior year, driven by base spread expansion, strong sales, and growth in assets under management and administration
Once we're closer to that, we feel like we've made enormous progress on all the elements of our capital management strategy
I mentioned global specialty, we think there's growth opportunities there, we think there's growth opportunities in our personal insurance business
Turning to L&R, fourth quarter results were solid, especially considering the continued headwinds from alternative investment returns
An improvement of 120 basis points year-over-year, driven by loss ratio improvement
In personal insurance, we will continue to make investments, particularly in our Japan business, our global A&H business, and our high-net-worth business, where we anticipate continued growth, and more importantly, profitability improvement
Turning to the full year result for general insurance, throughout 2023, we delivered terrific financial performance
       

Bearish Statements during earnings call

Statement
In contrast, alternative investment returns were weak this year, coming in slightly negative in the fourth quarter and at only 2.4% for the full year
Financial Lines are 20% of the gross premium written in the quarter and having a negative -- that just weights the overall rate environment
GI alternative income was $41 million in the fourth quarter, down 11% from the prior year quarter, for an annualized return of 3.9%
For the full year, Corebridge earnings in our adjusted after-tax income declined 20%
L&R's alternative portfolio generated a loss of $24 million in the quarter for an annualized yield of negative 1.8% compared to income of $16 million last year
Catastrophe losses totaled $126 million in the quarter, down from $235 million last year
But I would also note that in the 2022 accident year, we did have some adverse development on winter storm Elliott, which was at the very tail end of the fourth quarter of 2022
For the fourth quarter, Corebridge's earnings included an AIG-adjusted after-tax income decreased by about 25% due to the reduction in AIG ownership from 78% last year to 52% as of year-end
Importantly, it also now covers contributing losses from our high net worth portfolio
Excluding Validus RE from fourth quarter results, the pro forma Global Commercial Line's calendar year combined ratio would have been 85.1%, 30 basis points lower than reported
And then maybe just on the adverse PYD in Russia, Ukraine, just is that related to aviation? Is that just accident year 2022? Because I think there was some adverse in other [2019] (ph)
Property, if I looked at the fourth quarter, was the lowest submission count growth and that was up over 30%
These events contributed to a total annual insured loss currently estimated at over a $100 billion, marking the sixth time in the past seven years that insured loss from natural catastrophes has exceeded $100 billion
The largest event was Hurricane Otis in Mexico
Additionally, our pricing assumptions today have lost trends ranging from the high single digits to over 10%
Turning to casualty, the challenges we've spoken about previously regarding the impact of inflation, both social and economic, and litigation funding in the U.S
It obviously exposes the verticality of loss
Also in personal insurance, there is a lot of noise in the quarter
Second, as we've outlined on prior calls, we decided to non-renew two programs that had significant property catastrophe exposure that no longer met our underwriting guidelines
Adjusted book value per share was $76.65 at year-end, up 1% from year-end 2022, and down 2% for September 30th, reflecting the net impact of income, dividends, share repurchases, and Corebridge secondary sales
   

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