Today is shaping up negative for Voyager Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:VYGR) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to this year's forecasts. There was a fairly draconian cut to their revenue estimates, perhaps an implicit admission that previous forecasts were much too optimistic. At US$9.44, shares are up 9.3% in the past 7 days. Investors could be forgiven for changing their mind on the business following the downgrade; but it's not clear if the revised forecasts will lead to selling activity.

Following the latest downgrade, the seven analysts covering Voyager Therapeutics provided consensus estimates of US$33m revenue in 2024, which would reflect a sizeable 87% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. After this downgrade, the company is anticipated to report a loss of US$1.98 in 2024, a sharp decline from a profit over the last year. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$45m and losses of US$1.84 per share in 2024. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

View our latest analysis for Voyager Therapeutics

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Voyager Therapeutics' past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 87% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 20% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 18% per year. It's pretty clear that Voyager Therapeutics' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. Often, one downgrade can set off a daisy-chain of cuts, especially if an industry is in decline. So we wouldn't be surprised if the market became a lot more cautious on Voyager Therapeutics after today.

After a downgrade like this, it's pretty clear that previous forecasts were too optimistic. What's more, we've spotted several possible issues with Voyager Therapeutics' business, like dilutive stock issuance over the past year. Learn more, and discover the 3 other warning signs we've identified, for free on our platform here.