Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:TARS) defied analyst predictions to release its full-year results, which were ahead of market expectations. Revenues of US$17m beat estimates by a substantial 80% margin. Unfortunately, Tarsus Pharmaceuticals also reported a statutory loss of US$4.62 per share, which at least was smaller than the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Tarsus Pharmaceuticals

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Tarsus Pharmaceuticals' five analysts is for revenues of US$96.6m in 2024. This would reflect a substantial 454% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to increase substantially, hitting US$4.55 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$62.3m and losses of US$5.04 per share in 2024. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a sizeable upgrade to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.

The consensus price target rose 11% to US$49.38, with the analysts encouraged by the higher revenue and lower forecast losses for next year. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Tarsus Pharmaceuticals analyst has a price target of US$65.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$30.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Tarsus Pharmaceuticals' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 5x annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 23% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 9.0% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Tarsus Pharmaceuticals to grow faster than the wider industry.