Surmodics, Inc. (NASDAQ:SRDX) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead of market expectations. Revenues and losses per share were both better than expected, with revenues of US$31m leading estimates by 3.1%. Statutory losses were smaller than the analystsexpected, coming in at US$0.06 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Surmodics

Taking into account the latest results, the three analysts covering Surmodics provided consensus estimates of US$119.4m revenue in 2024, which would reflect a not inconsiderable 14% decline over the past 12 months. The company is forecast to report a statutory loss of US$1.20 in 2024, a sharp decline from a profit over the last year. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$119.3m and losses of US$1.37 per share in 2024. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed Surmodics'future looks a little different to the past, with a notable improvement in the loss per share forecasts in particular.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$59.25, suggesting that reduced loss estimates are not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Surmodics at US$75.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$44.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 18% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 6.2% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 8.0% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Surmodics' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.