It has been about a month since the last earnings report for CF Industries (CF). Shares have added about 9.2% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is CF due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

CF Industries' Q4 Earnings Lag, Lower Prices Hurt Sales

CF Industries logged fourth-quarter 2023 earnings of $1.44 per share, down from $4.35 in the year-ago quarter.

Barring one-time items, earnings came in at $1.49 per share for the reported quarter. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.56.

Net sales fell around 40% year over year to roughly $1.57 billion in the quarter. It, however, beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.49 billion. Sales were hurt by lower average selling prices as lower global energy costs led to reduced global market clearing price required to meet global demand.

Sales volumes rose year over year in the reported quarter on the back of higher urea ammonium nitrate, ammonia and diesel exhaust fluid sales volumes.

Segment Review

Net sales in the Ammonia segment decreased 38% year over year to $495 million in the reported quarter. It was above our estimate of $368 million. Average selling price per product ton was $460, which was above our estimate of $458. Ammonia adjusted gross margin per ton decreased for full-year 2023 compared with 2022 due to lower average selling prices, partly offset by lower realized natural gas prices.

Sales in the Granular Urea segment fell around 35% year over year to $392 million. It was lower than our estimate of $417.5 million. Average selling price per product ton was $378, which lagged our estimate of $387. Granular urea adjusted gross margin per ton decreased for full-year 2023 compared with 2022 mainly due to a decline in average selling prices, partly offset by lower realized natural gas prices.

Sales in the Urea Ammonium Nitrate segment fell around 51% year over year to $418 million. It lagged our estimate of $470 million. Average selling price per product ton was $231, which was below our estimate of $298. Adjusted gross margin per ton decreased for full-year 2023 compared with 2022 mainly due to reduced average selling prices that more than offset a decline in realized natural gas costs.

Sales in the Ammonium Nitrate segment fell around 37% year over year to $120 million. It was higher than our estimate of $116.7 million. Average selling price per product ton was $290, which was below our estimate of $316. Adjusted gross margin per ton decreased for full-year 2023 compared with 2022 due to lower average selling prices, partly offset by the impact of using lower-cost imported ammonia for ammonium nitrate production in the U.K. and reduced realized natural gas prices in North America.