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Welcome to the February 2024 edition of the lithium miner news.
The past month saw lithium prices generally flat.
Asian Metal reported during the past 30 days, the China delivered lithium carbonate (99.5% min.) spot price was down 0.59% and the China lithium hydroxide (56.5% min.) price was down 2.18%. The Lithium Iron Phosphate (3.9% min) price was flat (0.0% change). The Spodumene (6% min) price was flat (0.0% change) over the past 30 days.
Metal.com reported lithium spodumene concentrate Index (Li2O 5.5%-6.2%, excluding tax/insurance/freight) spot price of USD 910/t, as of Feb. 22, 2024.
China lithium carbonate spot price 5 year chart - CNY 95,500 (~USD 13,281) (source)
Trading Economics
China's CITIC Futures forecasts lithium surpluses in 2024 and 2025 (source) - In 2024 they forecast a China lithium carbonate price average of CNY 100,000/t (~US$14,000/t)
Mining.com courtesy CITIC Futures
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecasts lithium surpluses to end 2028, then deficits to increase significantly from 2029 (as of May 2023)(source)
Reuters courtesy BMI
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecasts small lithium surpluses then deficits for lithium, nickel & cobalt to increase from 2027 onwards (source)
BMI
Trend Investing v IEA demand forecast for EV metals (IEA)
Trend Investing & the IEA
On January 22 Fastmarkets reported:
Battery materials market facing oversupply and macroeconomic headwinds in 2024...Looking forward to 2024, we are now in a situation where some new supply is being ramped up while some high-cost production is being cut. Fastmarkets expects lithium supply to increase by 30% in 2024. However, we await to see the impact the current price environment will have on supply, as some producers may choose to reduce production or delay expansions. Furthermore, whilst Chinese production seems less prone to suffering delays - as seen with the ramp-up of domestic lepidolite and African spodumene projects, in most cases we expect new capacity to experience some start-up delays, contributing to supply-side risk. Market participants expect downstream lithium demand to remain relatively weak and with no imminent concerns about supply shortages, we forecast a tentatively balanced market in 2024.
On January 22 Mining.com reported:
Bolivia Uyuni plant to yield first lithium by 2025-end. Bolivian state-owned lithium company YLB has inked a new deal with a Chinese consortium to install a pilot plant at the vast Uyuni salt flat, which would use Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) technology. The project will see the construction of a 2,500 tonnes-per-year lithium carbonate facility that will be operated by the CBC consortium, formed by CATL, BRUNP and CMOC...The partners, which expect lithium from the project within 18 months, hope that the pilot plant will demonstrate the feasibility and profitability of extracting the coveted light metal from the brine under the salt crust using DLE technology, and pave the way for larger-scale operations in the future.
On January 26 Mining.com reported: "Bolivia launches new international tender for lithium extraction."
On January 29 Imerys announced:
Imerys has reached a new milestone in the implementation of its lithium production project for batteries... The La Loue conversion plant would be designed to produce around 34,000 tonnes of lithium hydroxide each year, enabling French and European battery manufacturing plants to equip the equivalent of 700,000 electric vehicles a year.
On January 29 Paul Lock posted on LinkedIn:
This chart is based on #lithium#battery demand, production, and inventory data published by ICCSINO this month. Despite continued strong growth in #EV demand, #batterymanufacturing has been falling throughout 2023 as #batterymanufacturers have been running down their inventories. The chart shows battery inventories fell from 4x monthly demand in January 2023, or ~260GWh, to less than 1x Jan 24 demand, or ~90GWh... But at less than 1x demand, inventory levels are approaching a critical level and this will need to be addressed, #electricvehicle growth is still strong... As a result, we should start seeing support come into the #LCE price as battery production increases.
Lithium-ion battery inventory levels approaching a critically low level (1x monthly demand) as of Jan. 2024 (source)
Paul Lock LinkedIn courtesy of ICCSINO
On February 2 Bloomberg reported:
Germany invests €1 billion to counter China on raw materials... As Germany's parliament approves Scholz's 2024 budget on Friday, the billion-euro fund is to be set up for four years. Investments will be coordinated with Italian and French initiatives in the raw materials sector, the people said. Policymakers will focus on mineral projects defined as critical in the European Union's Critical Raw Materials Act... "The raw-material fund can be an element, but it won't be a enough," Grimm told Bloomberg.
On February 7 The Detroit News reported:
GM, LG Chem establish $19 billion battery supply deal... Through the long-term supply contract, starting in 2026 and running through 2035, LG Chem will supply GM with more than 500,000 tons of cathode materials, which is enough to power 5 million battery electric vehicles with a range of 310 miles (500 kilometers) on a single charge. The materials supplied will come from LG Chem's under-construction plant in Tennessee, which will enable GM to meet EV subsidy criteria set by the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act.
On February 9 Mining.com reported: "EU, US to align global minerals push against China's supply grip."
On February 12 Nikkei Asia reported:
CATL, BYD, others unite in China for solid-state battery breakthrough. Beijing forms national alliance in all-out effort to revolutionize the EV market. China's battery and car makers have united as part of a government-led drive to commercialize all solid-state batteries, challenging Japan and the West in an area of technology that could revolutionize the electric vehicle market." Aiming to build a supply chain for solid-state batteries by 2030, Beijing in January set up a consortium, the China All-Solid-State Battery Collaborative Innovation Platform (CASIP), which brings together government, academia and industry, including EV battery rivals CATL and BYD.
On February 12 Investor News reported:
Experts warn of supply cliff for battery raw materials as Gigafactory demand builds. "We have to be very frank about where we're at with this situation. So really, we are at a cliff edge in terms of raw material supply," said Terry Scarrott of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence... Benchmark is currently tracking around 408 gigafactories. Of these, only 191 are active, and not all of those are operating at full capacity. As more and more of these gigafactories come online and their production rates increase, so too will their consumption of lithium and other battery metals... Although Benchmark is forecasting higher lithium supply for 2024, Perks said that supply overhang is expected to be short-lived and the sector will enter a deficit period much sooner than previously forecasted...According to Benchmark's Lithium-ion Battery Database, lithium-ion battery demand is forecast to grow almost 400 percent between 2023 and 2030 to reach an impressive 3.9 terawatt hours. Meeting this overwhelming and fast-paced demand growth will require expedient mobilization of capital in the global lithium-ion battery supply chain, Scarrott apprised.
Note: Bold emphasis by the author.
On February 16 Bloomberg reported:
Top lithium supplier Albemarle says prices are unsustainably low. Low lithium prices are "unsustainable" and will have to rise in order to trigger the supply investments needed to meet long-term demand growth, according to Albemarle Corp., the world's biggest producer.
On February 18 Seeking Alpha reported:
Top lithium producer cuts 2030 demand forecast on slower EV adoption - FT... Albemarle (ALB) forecast 3.3 million tonnes of lithium carbon equivalent to be needed globally by 2030, a 10% cut from its previous forecast of 3.7 million tonnes... "Some models have been delayed, largely out of North America, which is pushing out the length of time of penetration [of EVs] in the US," said Norris, adding that "potentially in parts of Europe" the shift is also expected to take longer.
On February 18 Seeking Alpha reported:
Top lithium producer cuts 2030 demand forecast on slower EV adoption - FT... Albemarle (ALB) forecast 3.3 million tonnes of lithium carbon equivalent to be needed globally by 2030, a 10% cut from its previous forecast of 3.7 million tonnes, according to a Financial Times report on Friday, which cited an interview with Eric Norris, Albemarle's president of lithium.
On February 19 Mining.com reported:
US moves to restore stockpiling 'panic button' in EV metals fight with China... the US faces serious shortages of the raw materials needed to execute the energy transition at the scale envisioned by Biden and his team... In December, Congress passed a new National Defense Authorization Act, which gives the logistics agency greater freedom to make long-term purchases without the congressional approval it had previously needed. It also guarantees $1 billion a year in future funding.
On February 21 Reuters reported:
China's lithium carbonate futures jump on talk of environmental crackdown. The most-active July contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange ended morning trade 6.35% higher at 99,600 yuan a metric ton after touching an intraday high of 103,000 yuan a ton earlier the session, the highest since Jan. 25... Information provider Shanghai Metals Market said in a note that there was market talk that Yichun, a city in the southern province of Jiangxi, will face environmental checks and producers that are unable to properly handle lithium slag may face curbs on their operations.
On February 22 Bloomberg reported: "Australia's Pilbara Minerals sees signs of lithium slump ending."
Albemarle (ALB)
On February 14, Albemarle announced: "Albemarle reports fourth quarter and full year 2023 results." Highlights include:
"Full Year 2023 Results (Unless otherwise stated, all percentage changes represent year-over-year comparisons)
Fourth Quarter 2023 Results and Recent Highlights
On February 14, Albemarle announced:
Albemarle and the BMW Group announce long-term partnership. Multi-year agreement will secure supply of lithium hydroxide for automaker and accelerate lithium material innovations...This multi-year agreement, which takes effect in 2025, is one of the company's largest ever globally and is of significant volume and value. In addition to supplying the BMW Group with lithium hydroxide, the two companies will partner on technology for safer and more energy dense lithium-ion batteries...
Sociedad Quimica y Minera S.A. (SQM), Wesfarmers [ASX:WES] (OTCPK:WFAFY), Covalent Lithium (SQM/WES JV)
On February 15 the AFR reported:
Wesfarmers won't make money off lithium at current prices. Wesfarmers, the conglomerate behind retail giants Bunnings and Kmart, confirmed it will make lithium concentrate this half, but its foray into critical minerals will be unprofitable at current prices. Chief executive Rob Scott declined to declare whether the lithium price had bottomed, but is betting that stalled projects by other producers will lead to supply tightening and prices bouncing back.
Upcoming catalysts:
H1, 2024 - Mt Holland spodumene production targeted to begin (SQM/Wesfarmers JV).
H1, 2025 - Production to start and then ramp to 50ktpa Lithium hydroxide [LiOH] at the Kwinana refinery in WA (SQM/Wesfarmers JV).
Arcadium Lithium (ALTM) [ASX:LTM](formed from the Allkem and Livent merger in Jan. 2024)
On February 4, Arcadium Lithium announced: "Combination creates a leading global integrated lithium chemicals producer."
On February 22 Arcadium Lithium reported: "Arcadium Lithium plc Non-GAAP EPS of $0.34 beats by $0.11, revenue of $181.8M misses by $36.89M.
Note: "Arcadium Lithium expects to provide additional calendar year 2023 pro forma financials early in the second quarter of 2024 and will release combined results for the new company beginning with the first quarter of 2024."
Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium [SHE:002460] [HK: 1772] (OTCPK:GNENY)
No news for the month.
(Chengdu) Tianqi Lithium Industries Inc. [SHE:002466], Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia (TLEA) is a JV with Tianqi Lithium (51%) and IGO Limited (49%). TLEA owns the Kwinana lithium hydroxide facility in WA
On January 30: Tianqi Lithium announced:
Profit warning... for the year ended 31 December 2023 (the "Reporting Period"), (i) the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the Company would range from RMB6,620 million to RMB8,950 million, representing a decrease of approximately 62.90% to 72.56% as compared with that of RMB24,124.58 million for the corresponding period of last year; (ii) the net profit after deducting the non-recurring profit or loss would range from RMB6,500 million to RMB8,820 million, representing a decrease of approximately 61.75% to 71.81% as compared with that of RMB23,059.43 million for the corresponding period of last year; and (iii) the basic earnings per share would range from RMB4.04 per share to RMB5.46 per share (the corresponding period of last year: RMB15.52 per share).
Pilbara Minerals [ASX:PLS] (OTC:PILBF)
On February 7, Pilbara Minerals announced: "Pilbara Minerals extends offtake agreement with Chengxin Lithium." Highlights include:
The amendment results in a significant extension and expansion of the offtake agreement until the end of calendar year 2026 (CY26). The terms of the amendment are detailed below:
On February 22, Pilbara Minerals announced: "FY24 interim results. Solid operating performance delivers 55% EBITDA margin." Highlights include:
Upcoming catalysts:
Mineral Resources [ASX:MIN] (OTCPK:MALRF)
Mineral Resources lithium assets include Mt Marion Mine (50% MIN: 50% Ganfeng). Wodgina Lithium Mine (50% ALB: 50% MIN).
On February 21, Mineral Resources announced: "Strong half-year operational performance across all businesses." Highlights include:
Solid underlying financial results:
Robust liquidity position maintained:
Lithium:
On February 21, Mineral Resources announced:
Mt Marion underground Mineral Resource update... has increased 111%1 to 19.3Mt at 1.22% Li2O as at 31 January 2024.
AMG Critical Materials N.V. [NA:AMG] [GR:ADG] (OTCPK:AMVMF) (Formerly AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group NV)
On February 21, AMG Critical Materials N.V. announced:
AMG reports record-setting earnings for the full year 2023. AMG Critical Materials N.V. ("AMG", EURONEXT AMSTERDAM: "AMG") reported record-setting adjusted EBITDA $350 million in 2023, due largely to strong profitability in our lithium and vanadium businesses. Fourth quarter 2023 revenue was $367 million, a 6% decrease versus the fourth quarter of 2022. Fourth quarter 2023 adjusted EBITDA of $71 million decreased 32% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. Cash from operating activities was $223 million in 2023, the highest in AMG's history, and 33% higher than the $168 million in 2022...
Upcoming catalysts:
Sayona Mining [ASX:SYA] (OTCQB:SYAXF)
On January 31, Sayona Mining announced:
December 2023 quarterly activities report... The balance of cash and cash equivalents at the end of the quarter was $158.0 million, a $74.8 million decrease over the equivalent balance of $232.8 million at 30 September 2023...
On February 20, Sayona Mining announced: "Moblan Lithium Project Definitive Feasibility Study: Positive results deliver c$2.2b NPV." Highlights include:
Upcoming catalysts include:
Piedmont Lithium (PLL)[ASX:PLL]
Piedmont Lithium 100% own the Carolina Lithium spodumene project in North Carolina, USA; as well as 25% of the North American Lithium [NAL] Project in Canada and up to 40.5% of the Ewoyaa Lithium Project in Ghana (JV with Atlantic Lithium and Ghana Gov + Ghana MIIF).
On February 5, Piedmont Lithium announced:
Multiple broad and high-grade drill intersections resource extension drilling results Ewoyaa Lithium Project, Ghana, West Africa. 83m at 1% Li 2O from 36m returned at Dog-Leg Target.
On February 6, Piedmont Lithium announced: "Piedmont Lithium provides corporate update." Highlights include:
On February 21, Piedmont Lithium announced:
Piedmont Lithium sells Sayona Mining shares... The Company has agreed to sell 1,152.2 million shares of Sayona for A$0.052 Australian Dollars ("A$") per share through a secondary block sale via Canaccord Genuity... and will result in gross proceeds of approximately A$59.9 million, or US$39.4 million for Piedmont. Following the transaction and some smaller recent public market share sales, Piedmont will no longer hold any shares of Sayona. The sale of these shares has no impact on Piedmont's joint venture or offtake position with Sayona Quebec.
On February 23 Piedmont Lithium announced:
PIEDMONT LITHIUM REPORTS Q4 & FULL YEAR 2023 RESULTSNAL Operations Ramping, Growth Projects Progressing, and Balance Sheet Reinforced
• $39.8 million full year revenue on sales of 43.2 thousand dry metric tons (dmt) of spodumene concentrate
• $5.7 million full year gross profit, reflecting settlement accruals in Q4'23
• Ramp up continues at NAL with further improvements in production and costs expected in 2024
• 2024 shipments expected to shift toward multi-year customer contracts; de-emphasizing volatile spot sales
• Permitting and regulatory approvals advancing in Ghana and North Carolina
• $71.7 million in cash and cash equivalents at December 31, 2023
• Net proceeds of approximately $49.1 million from sales of Sayona Mining and Atlantic Lithium shares in Q1'24.
We are completing a few remaining capital projects in the first half of 2024 that we expect will result in further improvements in production and operating costs as NAL looks to achieve full run-rate production levels later this year... Ewoyaa continues to advance through the permitting and approvals processes, and the project is poised to be a near-term spodumene producer with exceptional logistics and relatively modest capital and operating costs. "We continue to make advances towards our mining permit in North Carolina for our Carolina Lithium Project, with the most recent set of questions from the state indicating that the review process for this important milestone could be approaching its conclusion.
Upcoming catalysts include:
Core Lithium Ltd. [ASX:CXO] [GR:7CX] (OTCPK:CXOXF) (OTC:CORX)
Core 100% owns the Finniss Lithium Project (Grants Resource) in Northern Territory Australia.
On January 25, Core Lithium Ltd. announced: "2023 Exploration Program update." Highlights include:
Catalysts include:
Sigma Lithium Resources [TSXV:SGML] (SGMLF) (SGML)
Sigma is developing a world class lithium hard rock deposit with exceptional mineralogy at its Grota do Cirilo Project in Brazil.
On January 31, Sigma Lithium announced:
Sigma Lithium significantly increased audited Mineral Resource by 27% to 109mt: Grota do Cirilo in Brazil becomes world's 4th largest operating industrial pre-chemical lithium beneficiation & mining complex; Grota do Cirilo expected to further increase to 150mt.
On February 5, Sigma Lithium announced: "Sigma Lithium ships 22,000 tonnes of lithium concentrate: Glencore prepaid 50% at premium prices."
On February 12, Sigma Lithium announced:
Sigma Lithium is awarded by BNDES a letter of intention for development bank debt to fund construction of its environmentally fully licensed second greentech industrial lithium plant. Sigma Lithium completed the certification process with BNDES, which included the filing of the final FEL3 Capex for Construction and Engineering of the Second Greentech Plant totaling R$ 492,4 million or approximately US$ 100 million... Sigma anticipates initiating construction in the first quarter of 2024 at the end of the wet raining season, following a Final Investment Decision to be made by its Board of Directors.
Upcoming catalysts:
Lithium Americas Argentina [TSX:LAAC](LAAC)
Lithium Americas Argentina owns the Argentina assets (Cauchari Olaroz JV, Pastos Grandes, Sal de la Puna) from the LAC split.
No news for the month.
Upcoming catalysts:
NB: Ganfeng Lithium (51%) and Lithium Americas Argentina (49%) own the JV company Minera Exar S.A., which owns 91.5% interest and is entitled to 100% of the production from the Cauchari-Olaroz Project. The 8.5% interest is owned by Jujuy Energia y Mineria Sociedad del Estado ("JEMSE") (a company owned by the Government of Jujuy province).
Zijin Mining Group [SHA:601899] [HKSE:2899] (OTCPK:ZIJMF)
Zijin Mining owns 100% of the 3Q Lithium Mine in Argentina, with Stage 1 production started producing 2,903t LCE in 2023 and planning to ramp to 20,000tpa LCE. Zijing Mining is a large diversified mining group with global mines focused on copper, gold, zinc/lead, silver and lithium.
On January 29, Zijin Mining Group announced:
Announcement on estimated increase in operating results for the year ended 31 December 2023... Based on the preliminary estimation by the Company's Finance Department, it is estimated that the Company realised a net profit attributable to owners of the listed company of approximately RMB21.1 billion for the year 2023, representing an increase of approximately RMB1.058 billion, or an increase of approximately 5.28% compared with the same period last year (same period last year: RMB20.042 billion)...
On January 29, Zijin Mining Group announced:
Announcement in relation to the Production Volume Plan of the Major Mineral Products of the Company for the Year 2024. According to the overall requirements of the Company's Outline of Three-Year (2023-2025) Plan and Development Goals for 2030, the Board proposed the production volume plan of the major mineral products of the Company for the year 2024: 1.11 million tonnes of mine-produced copper, 73.5 tonnes of mine-produced gold, 470 thousand tonnes of mine-produced zinc (lead), 25 thousand tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent, 420 tonnes of mine-produced silver and 9 thousand tonnes of mine-produced molybdenum...
Argosy Minerals [ASX:AGY][GR:AM1] (OTCPK:ARYMF)
Argosy has an interest in the Rincon Lithium Mine in Argentina, targeting a fast-track development strategy. Argosy initially plans to ramp Stage 1 to 2,000tpa lithium carbonate.
On January 29, Argosy Minerals announced: "Quarterly activities report - December 2023." Highlights include:
On February 19, Argosy Minerals announced: "Rincon Lithium Project - progress update." Highlights include:
Upcoming catalysts:
Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT) 10 year price chart (source)
Seeking Alpha
Trend Investing lithium demand v supply model forecasts
Trend Investing forecasts lithium demand to increase 10.7x this decade.
Note: A Nov. 2020 UBS forecast is for "lithium demand to lift 11-fold from ~400kt in 2021 through to 2030."
February lithium prices were flat.
Highlights for the month were:
As usual all comments are welcome.
Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.