Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC is set to release first-quarter results on May 3. The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is a profit of $1.12 per share on revenues of $27.9 billion.

Let’s delve into the factors that might have influenced the independent oil refiner and marketer’s results in the March quarter. But it’s worth taking a look at MPC’s previous-quarter performance first.

Highlights of Q4 Earnings & Surprise History

In the last-reported quarter, the Findlay, OH-based downstream operator handily beat the consensus mark on stronger-than-expected performance from both segments. Precisely, operating income from the Refining & Marketing and the Midstream units totaled $881 million and $1.1 billion, respectively, ahead of their Zacks Consensus Estimate of $335 million and $995 million. MPC had reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.30, well above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 47 cents. Revenues of $35.6 billion generated by the firm also came in above the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 40.6%.

Marathon Petroleum beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the last four quarters, resulting in an earnings surprise of 74.8%, on average. This is depicted in the graph below:

Marathon Petroleum Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Marathon Petroleum Corporation price-eps-surprise | Marathon Petroleum Corporation Quote

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first-quarter bottom line has remained the same in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 660% jump year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues, meanwhile, suggests a 22% increase from the year-ago period.

Factors to Consider

MPC is expected to have benefited from the strength in refining margins. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the company’s refining margin more than doubled from the year-ago period to $15.88 per barrel. Moreover, throughput rose from 2,528 thousand barrels per day (mbpd) in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 2,936 mbpd. The positive momentum is most likely to have continued in the first quarter, thanks to a marked improvement in fuel demand on the back of rebounding road and airline travel, which pushed up crude differentials and margins. Consequently, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Marathon Petroleum’s Refining & Marketing segment operating income is pegged at $537 million, turning around from the prior-year quarter’s loss of $598 million. This is likely to have buoyed the first-quarter results of Marathon Petroleum.

On a somewhat bearish note, a higher expense structure might have dampened some of the positive impact. Marathon Petroleum’s total operating cost in the fourth quarter increased some 90% year over year to $33.8 billion. The upward cost trajectory is likely to have continued in the first quarter due to inflationary pressure and a planned turnaround budget.