Shareholders will be ecstatic, with their stake up 22% over the past week following Qifu Technology, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:QFIN) latest annual results. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of CN¥16b and statutory earnings per share of CN¥26.08. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Qifu Technology

Following the latest results, Qifu Technology's eleven analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥16.7b in 2024. This would be a modest 2.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to ascend 12% to CN¥29.85. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥18.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥30.53 in 2024. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the small dip in earnings per share expectations.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$22.51 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Qifu Technology, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$26.85 and the most bearish at US$15.94 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Qifu Technology's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 2.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 18% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 12% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Qifu Technology.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Qifu Technology. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.