Papa John's International, Inc. (NASDAQ:PZZA) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.6% to US$69.94 in the week after its latest yearly results. Papa John's International reported US$2.1b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.48 beat expectations, being 3.5% higher than what the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Papa John's International

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Papa John's International from 16 analysts is for revenues of US$2.19b in 2024. If met, it would imply a modest 2.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 4.9% to US$2.63. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$2.22b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.77 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at US$82.00, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Papa John's International analyst has a price target of US$97.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$65.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Papa John's International's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 2.8% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.9% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.5% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Papa John's International is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.