Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. OLLI is likely to register an increase in the top line when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 numbers on Mar 20 before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $649.1 million, which indicates an increase of 18.1% from the prior-year quarter.

The extreme-value retailer of brand-name merchandise is expected to see a year-over-year increase in its bottom line. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share has remained steady at $1.16 for the past 30 days, which calls for a significant rise from the 84 cents reported in the same period last year.

The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7%, on average. In the last reported quarter, this Harrisburg, PA-based company’s bottom line outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 13.3%.

Key Factors to Consider

Ollie's Bargain’s business operating model of “buying cheap and selling cheap,” cost-containment efforts, focus on store productivity and the expansion of the customer loyalty program, Ollie's Army, are likely to have contributed to the top-line performance.

The company’s focus on value-driven merchandise assortments positioned it well to capitalize on opportunities in the marketplace and effectively meet consumer demand. Ollie's Army continued to be a major sales driver, with membership increasing continuously. We expect comparable store sales growth of 3% for the fourth quarter.

While the aforementioned factors raise optimism about the outcome, margins still remain an area to watch. Any deleverage in SG&A expenses due to higher selling expenses associated with new store unit growth, as well as investments in wages and higher utility costs, may have a direct bearing on margins.  We expect SG&A expenses to increase 16% year over year for the quarter under discussion.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. Quote

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Ollie's Bargain this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here.

Ollie's Bargain has a Zacks Rank #3 but an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.