Results: Neenah, Inc. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

Results: Neenah, Inc. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

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As you might know, Neenah, Inc. (NYSE:NP) just kicked off its latest quarterly results with some very strong numbers. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 2.3% to hit US$234m. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at US$0.97, some 9.8% above whatthe analysts had expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Neenah

NYSE:NP Past and Future Earnings May 12th 2020
NYSE:NP Past and Future Earnings May 12th 2020

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the three analysts covering Neenah, is for revenues of US$817.3m in 2020, which would reflect an uncomfortable 12% reduction in Neenah's sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to fall 19% to US$2.88 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$854.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.89 in 2020. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.

The consensus has reconfirmed its price target of US$55.67, showing that the analysts don't expect weaker sales expectations next year to have a material impact on Neenah's market value. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Neenah at US$62.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$50.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Neenah is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast revenue decline of 12%, a significant reduction from annual growth of 2.8% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.2% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Neenah is expected to lag the wider industry.