Last week saw the newest first-quarter earnings release from MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (NYSE:MSM), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Revenues of US$954m were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$1.22, missing estimates by 5.7%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for MSC Industrial Direct

Taking into account the latest results, MSC Industrial Direct's nine analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$4.05b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$5.88, roughly flat on the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$4.09b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.10 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$108, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values MSC Industrial Direct at US$124 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$95.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that MSC Industrial Direct is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that MSC Industrial Direct's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 4.3% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.9% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that MSC Industrial Direct is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.