One thing we could say about the analysts on Macquarie Infrastructure Corporation (NYSE:MIC) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. This report focused on revenue estimates, and it looks as though the consensus view of the business has become substantially more conservative. Surprisingly the share price has been buoyant, rising 13% to US$30.23 in the past 7 days. Whether the downgrade will have a negative impact on demand for shares is yet to be seen.

Following the downgrade, the consensus from dual analysts covering Macquarie Infrastructure is for revenues of US$1.3b in 2021, implying a definite 11% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to turn into profits real soon, with the analysts forecasting US$1.17 in per-share earnings. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.92 in 2021. Thus, there's been a definite swing in sentiment, with the analysts making a considerable reduction to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time substantially upgrading EPS. It's almost as though the business is forecast to reduce its focus on growth to enhance profitability.

See our latest analysis for Macquarie Infrastructure

The consensus has made no major changes to the price target of US$34.50, suggesting the forecast improvement in earnings is expected to offset the decline in revenues next year. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Macquarie Infrastructure, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$35.00 and the most bearish at US$34.00 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Macquarie Infrastructure is an easy business to forecast or the underlying assumptions are obvious.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 1.1% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for a 11% decline in revenue next year. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the wider industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 15% next year. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Macquarie Infrastructure is expected to see its sales affected worse than other companies in the industry.