It's been a sad week for Malibu Boats, Inc. (NASDAQ:MBUU), who've watched their investment drop 17% to US$41.75 in the week since the company reported its quarterly result. Revenues of US$211m fell slightly short of expectations, but earnings were a definite bright spot, with statutory per-share profits of US$0.49 an impressive 24% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Malibu Boats

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from seven analysts covering Malibu Boats is for revenues of US$893.5m in 2024. This implies a disturbing 26% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plummet 22% to US$2.47 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.10b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.88 in 2024. It looks like sentiment has declined substantially in the aftermath of these results, with a real cut to revenue estimates and a large cut to earnings per share numbers as well.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 16% to US$49.57. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Malibu Boats at US$60.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$44.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Malibu Boats' past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 46% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 18% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.1% per year. It's pretty clear that Malibu Boats' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.