The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Open Lending Corporation (NASDAQ:LPRO), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its annual results last week. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with US$117m revenue coming in 9.7% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.18 missed the mark badly, arriving some 31% below what was expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Open Lending

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Open Lending from nine analysts is for revenues of US$127.1m in 2024. If met, it would imply a notable 8.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 40% to US$0.26. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$130.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.29 in 2024. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$8.17, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Open Lending's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Open Lending analyst has a price target of US$10.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$6.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Open Lending's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 8.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 15% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.5% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Open Lending is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.