A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Moelis (MC). Shares have lost about 5.5% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Moelis due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Moelis & Company Incurs Loss in Q4, Revenues Rise Y/Y

Moelis & Company incurred a fourth-quarter 2023 adjusted loss per share of 6 cents, which was narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate for a loss of 11 cents. The bottom line compared unfavorably with earnings of 33 cents in the prior-year quarter.

Results were adversely impacted by a surge in expenses. However, an improvement in revenues and a solid liquidity position were the positives.

Net loss (GAAP basis) was $6.5 million or 8 cents per share against a net income of $22.7 million or 28 cents per share in the prior-year quarter.

For 2023, adjusted loss of 20 cents per share was narrower than the consensus estimate of a loss of 24 cents. Last year, adjusted earnings were $2.22. Net loss (GAAP basis) was $27.5 million or 36 cents per share against a net income of $168.7 million or $2.14 per share in 2022.

Revenues Rise, Expenses Jump

Total revenues (GAAP basis) for the reported quarter grew 4% year over year to $214.9 million. This was driven by a rise in fees earned from restructuring and capital markets transactions. The top line also beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $194.7 million.

For 2023, total revenues (GAAP) were $854.7 million, down 13%. The top line, however, outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $838.2 million.

Total operating expenses (GAAP basis) were $224.2 million, jumping 26%. The rise was due to an increase in both compensation and benefits costs and non-compensation expenses. Our estimates for total operating expenses were $213.4 million.

Other income (GAAP basis) was $5.1 million in the reported quarter, surging 79% from the prior-year quarter.

As of Dec 31, 2023, the company had cash and liquid investments of $349.3 million, with no debt or goodwill.

Outlook

Management expects adjusted non-compensation expenses to be $45-$46 million range per quarter.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -9.76% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Moelis has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a D. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.