Shareholders of Liberty Energy Inc. (NYSE:LBRT) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 14% to US$19.70 following its latest annual results. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$4.7b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 2.7% to hit US$3.15 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Liberty Energy

Taking into account the latest results, the 13 analysts covering Liberty Energy provided consensus estimates of US$4.65b revenue in 2024, which would reflect a measurable 2.1% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to fall 13% to US$2.86 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$4.74b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.98 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$23.33, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Liberty Energy analyst has a price target of US$28.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$18.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 2.1% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 25% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 8.0% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Liberty Energy is expected to lag the wider industry.