The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Luminar Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:LAZR), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its annual results last week. The numbers were fairly weak, with revenue of US$70m missing analyst predictions by 7.0%, and (statutory) losses of US$1.47 per share being slightly larger than what the analysts had expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Luminar Technologies

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Luminar Technologies' eleven analysts is for revenues of US$115.2m in 2024. This would reflect a substantial 65% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to narrow 9.2% to US$1.26 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$177.0m and US$1.32 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated losses the business will incur.

The consensus price target fell 12% to US$6.74, with the dip in revenue estimates clearly souring sentiment, despite the forecast reduction in losses. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Luminar Technologies, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$20.00 and the most bearish at US$1.50 per share. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Luminar Technologies' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 65% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 38% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.9% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Luminar Technologies is expected to grow much faster than its industry.