Novavax, Inc. NVAX is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2021 results on Feb 28, after market close.
The company's surprise record has been dismal so far, as its earnings missed expectations in each of the four trailing quarters, with the average negative surprise being 31.1%. In the last reported quarter, Novavax witnessed a negative earnings surprise of 6.7%.
Novavax, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Novavax, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Novavax, Inc. Quote
In the trailing 12 months, shares of Novavax have plunged 67.4% in comparison with the industry's 39.2% decline.
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Let's see how things have shaped up for the quarter to be reported.
Factors to Note
In the fourth quarter, Novavax received authorization for its protein-based COVID-19 vaccine in Indonesia, Philippines, European Union and India.
In 2022, the vaccine also received authorization for use in multiple markets including Australia, Canada, Great Britain and South Korea.
We note that Novavax is currently marketing two versions of NVX-CoV2373 — one marketed in partnership with the Serum Institute of India (Serum) under the trade name Covovax and another produced by Novavax marketed under the trade name Nuvaxovid.
Though the number might be minimal, we expect the company to report initial sales of its COVID vaccine.
In the last reported quarter, revenues increased significantly year over year owing to the funding from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations and other sources in relation to the clinical development of NVX-CoV2373, a trend that most likely continued in the to-be-reported quarter.
After a series of delays, Novavax finally filed for Emergency Use Authorization of its COVID-19 vaccine with the FDA last month. The company also submitted regulatory filings seeking approval for NVX-CoV2373 in multiple markets including Japan, South Africa and the United Arab Emirates.
On account of the multiple regulatory filings related to NVX-CoV2373 filed during the quarter, we expect operating expenses to have likely escalated in the to-be-reported quarter.
We expect management to provide an update on the company's pipeline.
Novavax is also evaluating its COVID-19 vaccine in adolescents from 12 to 17 years of age. Earlier this month, NVAX reported that the vaccine generated neutralizing antibodies in adolescents, similar to the antibody responses in young adult patients (aged between 18 and 26 years) who were administered the vaccine in the phase III PREVENT study.
In December 2021, NVAX initiated dosing patients in an extension of the phase III PREVENT-19 study to evaluate the third/booster dose of its COVID vaccine. The company also plans to begin clinical studies on an Omicron-based COVID-19 vaccine in first-quarter 2022.
This apart, NVAX is evaluating other vaccine candidates in its pipeline. ResVax, Novavax's potential respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine, is being evaluated in a phase III study to protect infants by immunizing their mothers against the disease.
Novavax also completed a phase III pivotal study on its nanoparticle seasonal influenza vaccine candidate NanoFlu for patients aged 65 years and above. The study met all the eight primary endpoints. An update on the timeline for regulatory filing of the vaccine is expected during the upcoming earnings call.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Novavax this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. Unfortunately, that is not the case here as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Novavax's Earnings ESP is 0.00% as both the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at 31 cents per share.
Zacks Rank: Novavax currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks to Consider
Here are a few stocks you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Apellis Pharmaceuticals APLS has an Earnings ESP of +16.07% as the Most Accurate Estimate of a loss of $1.11 per share is narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.32. Apellis Pharmaceuticals currently holds a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Apellis Pharmaceuticals' loss per share estimates for 2022 have narrowed from $5.13 to $5.12 in the past 30 days. Apellis Pharmaceuticals missed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while beating the mark on one occasion, delivering a positive surprise of 41.2%, on average.
Gamida Cell GMDA has an Earnings ESP of +13.64% as the Most Accurate Estimate of a loss of 38 cents per share is narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 44 cents. Gamida Cell currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present.
Gamida Cell's loss per share estimates for 2022 have narrowed from $1.83 to $1.35 in the past 30 days. Gamida Cell topped earnings estimates twice in the last four quarters and missed the mark on the other two occasions, delivering a negative surprise of 22.6%, on average.
Kaleido Biosciences KLDO has an Earnings ESP of +20.41% as the Most Accurate Estimate of loss of 52 cents per share is narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of loss of 65 cents. Kaleido Biosciences currently has a Zacks Rank #2 at present.
In the past 30 days, earnings per share estimates of Kaleido Biosciences for 2022 have narrowed from $2.13 to $1.89 in the past 30 days. In fact, Kaleido Biosciences beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing the mark on one occasion, delivering a negative surprise of 5.1%, on average.
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