The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on J&J Snack Foods Corp. (NASDAQ:JJSF), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its quarterly results last week. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$348m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 51%, coming in at just US$0.37 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for J&J Snack Foods

Following last week's earnings report, J&J Snack Foods' four analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$1.58b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to expand 18% to US$4.84. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.60b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.52 in 2024. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$186, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic J&J Snack Foods analyst has a price target of US$195 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$175. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that J&J Snack Foods' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 7.1% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 2.5% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that J&J Snack Foods is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.