Howmet Aerospace Inc. HWM is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2023 earnings on Feb 13, before market open.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s fourth-quarter earnings has remained steady in the past 60 days. HWM has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings beat the consensus estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and met the same in one, delivering an average surprise of 5%.

Let’s see how things might have shaped up prior to the announcement.

Factors to Note

The company’s Engine products segment has been reaping the benefits from robust momentum in the commercial aerospace, defense aerospace, oil and gas, and industrial gas turbine markets. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segment’s revenues is pegged at $811 million, indicating a 10.8% rise from the fourth-quarter 2022 reported number.

Growth in the commercial aerospace market, including the emerging wide body recovery, and the commercial transportation market, is likely to have supported the Fastening Systems segment's fourth-quarter results. The consensus estimate for revenues in the segment is pegged at $345 million, indicating a 21.1% increase from the fourth-quarter 2022 reported number.

Strength across the commercial aerospace, defense aerospace, commercial transportation, and industrial and other markets is likely to have supported HWM’s results in the fourth quarter. The consensus estimate for the company’s fourth-quarter 2023 revenues is pegged at $1.7 billion, suggesting an increase of 9.3% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The consensus estimate for the company’s adjusted earnings is pinned at 46 cents per share, indicating a 21.1% decline from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.

However, weakness in the defense aerospace market, mainly associated with legacy fighter programs, is expected to have hurt the Engineered Structures segment in the fourth quarter. We expect the segment’s revenues to decrease 1.3% year over year to $227 million in the to-be-reported quarter.

The rising cost of sales due to raw material inflation is likely to have partially dented Howmet’s bottom line in the quarter to be reported.

Howmet Aerospace Inc. Price and Consensus

Howmet Aerospace Inc. price-consensus-chart | Howmet Aerospace Inc. Quote

Earnings Whisper

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for HWM this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as elaborated below.

Earnings ESP: Howmet has an Earnings ESP of -4.92% as the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at 44 cents, which is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 46 cents. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Howmet presently carries a Zacks Rank of 2.