Is the 'Worst Behind Us'? ETFs to Buy

Is the 'Worst Behind Us'? ETFs to Buy

Wall Street has been heaving a sign of relief this week on cues of slowdown in global coronavirus cases. Data from Johns Hopkins shows that the last five-day moving average of new confirmed cases in the United States has declined. This is also true for other heavily-affected countries like Italy, Spain and United Kingdom. New York, the coronavirus hot spot in the United States, is also showing signs of a slowdown in cases.

This piece of news triggered a relief rally in Wall Street on Apr 6 that has been supported by massive global stimulus. An infinite QE by the Fed and about $2-triliion fiscal measures have been boosting Wall Street investors’ sentiments. The S&P 500, the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq gained about 7% at the start of the week and lost little on Apr 7, probably for profit-booking.

Has Wall Street Bottomed?

Market pundits have diverse opinions on this. However, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson believes that for stocks and investors, the worst is behind us. Valuations are most attractive since 2011, per Wilson. He added that the current stock market level is a good entry point for a six to 12-month horizon, as quoted on MarketWatch.

Lest we forget, the economy was on a strong footing before the virus attack. Americans’ savings were just 3.6% of their income at the end of 2007, while households now save at an 8% rate. Unemployment rate was at a 50-year low level.

The job market might be in a bad shape today owing to the outbreak but we are likely to see a V-shaped recovery (which is a fast one) and in worst-case, U-shaped (marks a slow recovery). In short, this is not a 2008-like scenario where job losses were due to economic weakness. This time it’s simply because operations are shut down to contain the spread of the virus. One should note that the economy still has substantial pent-up demand.

Against this backdrop, we highlight a few sector ETFs that gained significantly this week after an excruciating past month. This gives hints on investors’ behavior toward the market in the post-virus economy. A painful past month calls for a cheaper valuation.

ETFs to Buy

Homebuilding iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF ITB

The Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) fund ITB has gained 15.9% so far this week, while it has declined 32.1% in the past month. Lower-than-expected decline in mortgage rates, likelihood of labor shortage, reduced wealth effect and the absence of the Spring selling season wreaked havoc on the sector in the past month.

If coronavirus cases drop further, the Fed and government stimulus keep offering support and stock markets bounce back, housing ETFs are sure to make a comeback (read: What Fed Rate Cut? 5 Reasons Why Housing ETFs Are in Trouble).