Is Trade Scaring You? ETF Strategies for 2019 Holiday Season

Is Trade Scaring You? ETF Strategies for 2019 Holiday Season

Is Trade Scaring You? ETF Strategies for 2019 Holiday Season · Zacks
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We are now in the thick of the holiday season. Per NRF, the holiday season runs from Nov 1 through Dec 31, when solid buying normally boosts consumer discretionary stocks and some other areas of the economy.

A consensus carried out from 1950 through 2018 has revealed that December offered positive returns in 51 years and negative returns in 18 years, the average return being 1.35%, the second best seen in a year, as per moneychimp.com. It is believed that a Santa Clause rally normally drives markets, at this time of the year.

Meanwhile, the average return in November was 1.39%, the best in a year. NRF now expects retail sales in November and December to expand between 3.8% and 4.2%. Consumers are planning to spend $1,048, on average, which is 4% higher than last year.

However, uncertainty over the U.S.-China phase-one trade deal, caused by occasional anti-deal rhetoric, could crash the market momentum. Investors' focus is now on Dec 15 — the date for the imposition of another round of tariffs on Chinese goods (read: Not Santa, Trade Will Rule This December: ETFs to Your Rescue).

Given this scenario, it is less likely that Santa alone will drive Wall Street this season. Nonetheless, a spike in Christmas shopping can definitely do wonders for the markets (read: What Soft Confidence? 3 ETFs & Stocks for Solid Holiday Buying).

Against this scenario, below we highlight some ETF strategies for the holiday season.

Take a Bite Out of Apple

Many Wall Street analysts are bullish on Apple this time around. Citigroup's Jim Suva believes"this Christmas is different for Apple" and raised Apple's price target with a Buy rating. "Apple's product offerings as well as pricing strategies and recent demand trends" should make Apple a winner this holiday season.

Apple's AirPods could see a shortage because of their popularity in the holiday season, per Wedbush analyst Dan Ives. A survey conducted by Piper Jaffray shows that Apple is the "top-listed consumer brand for teens" this holiday season. Apple Watch devices and AirPods are likely to serve as great holiday gifts. 

Other research houses like Bernstein, Morgan Stanley and Barclays have also been betting big on Apple's wearables segment. Demand for iPhone 11 has been strong. So bet on Apple-heavy ETFs like Select Sector SPDR Technology ETF XLK, Vanguard Information Technology ETF VGT and MSCI Information Technology Index ETF FTEC (read: After a Sweet November, Apple ETFs are Set for a Warm December).

Online Shopping Wins All Out: Good Long-Term Bet