Herc Holdings Inc. (NYSE:HRI) last week reported its latest annual results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$3.3b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 2.8% to hit US$12.09 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Herc Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Herc Holdings' eight analysts is for revenues of US$3.44b in 2024. This reflects a reasonable 4.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 7.1% to US$13.13. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.53b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$13.98 in 2024. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$180 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Herc Holdings at US$335 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$110. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Herc Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 4.8% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. Compare this to the 61 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.3% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Herc Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.