It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Hawaiian Holdings (HA). Shares have lost about 2.1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Hawaiian Holdings due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Wider-Than-Expected Loss in Q4

Hawaiian Holdings posted fourth-quarter 2023 loss (excluding 41 cents from non-recurring items) of $2.37 per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $2.35. In the year-ago quarter HA posted a loss of $1.06.

Quarterly revenues of $669.1 million fell 8.5% year over year but met the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Quarterly revenues were hurt by a devastating wildfire in Lahaina in West Maui, which, in turn, affected traffic.

Notably, passenger revenues accounted for 89.9% of the top line in fourth-quarter 2023.

Scheduled airline traffic (measured by revenue passenger miles) increased 5.9% year over year. Scheduled capacity (measured in available seat miles or ASM) rose 3.4% year over year to 5.1 billion. Passenger load factor (percentage of seats filled by passengers) improved to 82.7% from 80.8% reported a year ago.

Passenger revenue per ASM or PRASM decreased to 11.79 cents, witnessing a year-over-year fall of 10.7%. Operating revenue per ASM (RASM) fell by 11.4% on a year-over-year basis.

Average fuel cost per gallon (economic) decreased 10% year over year to $2.98 in the fourth quarter.  Operating cost per ASM or CASM, excluding aircraft fuel and non-recurring items, inched down 1% year over year to 15.30 cents at fourth-quarter 2023 end.

Liquidity

As of Dec 31, 2023, the company had unrestricted cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments of $0.9 billion, and outstanding debt and finance lease obligations of $1.7 billion.

Q1 2024 Outlook

RASM is expected to go down to 1-2% from first-quarter 2023 figures.

Capacity is anticipated to increase 2.5-5.5% from the year-ago levels.

Costs per ASM (excluding fuel & non-recurring items) are suggested to climb 8-11% (non-GAAP figures) from the prior-year levels.

Gallons of jet fuel consumed are forecast to rise 4-7% from the year-earlier levels.

The effective tax rate is envisioned to be around 21%.

Fuel price per gallon is expected to be $2.71 by the end of first-quarter 2024.

2024 Outlook

The below expectations are in comparison with full-year 2023 actuals.

Gallons of jet fuel consumed are now suggested to increase 4-7%.    

Fuel price per gallon is anticipated to be $2.59.

ASMs are now expected to improve 6-9%.    

Capital Expenditure is still projected in the range of $500-$550 million.