Shareholders in Eventbrite, Inc. (NYSE:EB) had a terrible week, as shares crashed 31% to US$5.60 in the week since its latest yearly results. Revenue hit US$326m in line with forecasts, although the company reported a statutory loss per share of US$0.26 that was somewhat smaller than the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Eventbrite
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Eventbrite's seven analysts is for revenues of US$375.1m in 2024. This reflects a notable 15% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 34% to US$0.17. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$399.5m and losses of US$0.053 per share in 2024. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Eventbrite after this update; revenues were downgraded and per-share losses expected to increase.
The consensus price target fell 20% to US$10.14, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Eventbrite analyst has a price target of US$13.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$7.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Eventbrite is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 15% annualised growth until the end of 2024. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 0.3% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.8% per year. Not only are Eventbrite's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.
