If you're looking at a mature business that's past the growth phase, what are some of the underlying trends that pop up? Typically, we'll see the trend of both return on capital employed (ROCE) declining and this usually coincides with a decreasing amount of capital employed. This indicates the company is producing less profit from its investments and its total assets are decreasing. And from a first read, things don't look too good at Commercial Vehicle Group (NASDAQ:CVGI), so let's see why.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. The formula for this calculation on Commercial Vehicle Group is:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.094 = US$30m ÷ (US$496m - US$176m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).

Therefore, Commercial Vehicle Group has an ROCE of 9.4%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Machinery industry average of 12%.

Check out our latest analysis for Commercial Vehicle Group

Above you can see how the current ROCE for Commercial Vehicle Group compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report for Commercial Vehicle Group.

What Can We Tell From Commercial Vehicle Group's ROCE Trend?

There is reason to be cautious about Commercial Vehicle Group, given the returns are trending downwards. About five years ago, returns on capital were 21%, however they're now substantially lower than that as we saw above. On top of that, it's worth noting that the amount of capital employed within the business has remained relatively steady. Since returns are falling and the business has the same amount of assets employed, this can suggest it's a mature business that hasn't had much growth in the last five years. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on Commercial Vehicle Group becoming one if things continue as they have.

The Key Takeaway

In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock. It should come as no surprise then that the stock has fallen 18% over the last five years, so it looks like investors are recognizing these changes. With underlying trends that aren't great in these areas, we'd consider looking elsewhere.