One thing we could say about the analysts on CureVac N.V. (NASDAQ:CVAC) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates were cut sharply as analysts factored in the latest outlook for the business, concluding that they were too optimistic previously.

After this downgrade, CureVac's eight analysts are now forecasting revenues of €81m in 2024. This would be a major 90% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is anticipated to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 35% to €0.88. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of €122m and €0.65 per share in losses. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

See our latest analysis for CureVac

The consensus price target fell 8.2% to €12.91, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for CureVac's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values CureVac at €19.13 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €5.83. With such a wide range in price targets, the analysts are almost certainly betting on widely diverse outcomes for the underlying business. As a result it might not be possible to derive much meaning from the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that CureVac's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 67% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 21% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 16% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect CureVac to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at CureVac. While analysts did downgrade their revenue estimates, these forecasts still imply revenues will perform better than the wider market. With a serious cut to next year's expectations and a falling price target, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were becoming wary of CureVac.