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Asian stock markets : https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4

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US stocks jump, MSCI world index gains

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China output, retail sales beat forecasts

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Markets brace for BOJ to end negative rates

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Fed seen on hold, but might signal slower rate cuts

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Dollar keeps gains, yen on defensive for now

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By Nell Mackenzie and Koh Gui Qing

NEW YORK/LONDON, March 18 (Reuters) - Global stocks jumped on Monday while Treasury yields crept higher as investors looked ahead to a raft of central bank meetings this week that could see the end of free money in Japan and a blueprint for U.S. rate cuts this year.

By 1453 GMT, MSCI's broadest index of stocks jumped 0.69%, helped in part by upbeat industrial output and retail sales data from China.

In the United States, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.36%, the S&P 500 gained 1.07%, and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.62%.

"The market focus is very much on the start of rate cuts. Not that the Fed is expected to cut at this meeting, but any clues Chair Powell might offer for when the first rate cut could come," said Chris Low, Chief Economist at FHN Financial.

The U.S. Federal Reserve, which ends its policy meeting on Wednesday, is considered certain to keep rates at 5.25-5.5%, and investors mostly expect the Fed to begin cutting rates by June or July.

However, some analysts have warned of the possibility that the Fed might signal a higher-for-longer outlook on policy, given the stickiness of inflation at both consumer and producer levels.

"Recent U.S. data indicate gradual steps towards increasing inflation risks," Dana Malas, a strategist at SEB Bank, said in a note.

"That the road to 2% would be straight is wishful thinking; setbacks are inevitable. Disinflationary forces are still stronger than inflationary pressures," she said.

The probability of a U.S. rate cut as early as June has dropped to 56%, from 75% a week earlier, and the market has only 72 basis points of easing priced in for 2024 compared to more than 140 basis points a month ago.

This sent two-year Treasury yields up to 4.734%, after they climbed 24 basis points last week, while 10-year yields stood at 4.332%.

The Fed is also expected this week to start talking about how it might slow the pace of its bond sales, perhaps halving it to $30 billion a month.

A number of other central banks including in Japan, Britain, Switzerland, Norway, Australia, Indonesia, Taiwan, Turkey, Brazil, and Mexico also meet this week and, while many are expected to hold steady, there is plenty of scope for surprises.

Tuesday could see Japan end the longest run of negative interest rates in history, after its companies decided on the biggest pay hikes in 33 years.