Arko Corp. (NASDAQ:ARKO) missed earnings with its latest yearly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$9.4b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 28%, coming in at just US$0.24 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Arko

Following last week's earnings report, Arko's five analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$9.25b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 23% to US$0.19 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$10.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.27 in 2024. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a large cut to earnings per share estimates.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 14% to US$8.70. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Arko at US$12.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$7.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 1.8% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 23% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.2% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Arko is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Arko. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Arko's future valuation.